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首页> 外文期刊>Physical review, E. Statistical physics, plasmas, fluids, and related interdisciplinary topics >Simple model of epidemics with pathogen mutation - art. no. 031915
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Simple model of epidemics with pathogen mutation - art. no. 031915

机译：具有病原体突变的流行病的简单模型-艺术。没有。 031915

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We study how the interplay between the memory immune response and pathogen mutation affects epidemic dynamics in two related models. The first explicitly models pathogen mutation and individual memory immune responses, with contacted individuals becoming infected only if they are exposed to strains that are significantly different from other strains in their memory repertoire. The second model is a reduction of the first to a system of difference equations. In this case, individuals spend a fixed amount of time in a generalized immune class. In both models, we observe four fundamentally different types of behavior, depending on parameters: (1) pathogen extinction due to lack of contact between individuals; (2) endemic infection; (3) periodic epidemic outbreaks; and (4) one or more outbreaks followed by extinction of the epidemic due to extremely low minima in the oscillations. We analyze both models to determine the location of each transition. Our main result is that pathogens in highly connected populations must mutate rapidly in order to remain viable. [References: 11]
机译：我们研究记忆免疫反应和病原体突变之间的相互作用如何在两个相关模型中影响流行病动态。第一个模型明确地模拟了病原体突变和个体记忆免疫反应，只有当接触的个体暴露于与其记忆库中的其他菌株明显不同的菌株时，感染的个体才会被感染。第二个模型是第一个模型简化为差分方程组。在这种情况下，个体在广义免疫类别中花费固定的时间。在两个模型中，我们根据参数观察到四种根本不同的行为类型：（1）由于个体之间缺乏接触而导致的病原体灭绝; （2）地方性感染; （3）周期性流行病暴发; （4）一次或多次暴发，随后由于极低的振荡极小值而灭绝了流行病。我们分析两个模型以确定每个过渡的位置。我们的主要结果是，高度关联的人群中的病原体必须快速突变才能保持活力。 [参考：11]

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