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Future science

机译：未来科学

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I want to look with you into the future, to see how our understanding of the world, and our technology, might develop. There is great interest in the future, as is shown by the popularity of the 'Star Wars' films and the 'Star Trek' series. Nearly all the visions of the future that we have been shown, from H. G. Wells onwards, have been essentially static. They show a society that is in most cases, in advance of ours, in science, in technology, and in political organization. (The last might not be difficult.) By the time we are shown the future, science, technology, and the organization of society, are supposed to have achieved a level of near perfection. For example, the film 2001: A Space Odyssey, showed us with a base on the moon, the launching of a manned, or should I say, personned flight to Jupiter (Figure 1). I cannot see us managing that by the end of the year! We now have such heightened expectations, that some people feel cheated by politicians and scientists, because we have not already achieved the Utopian visions of the future. So how will we develop in science and technology, over the next millennium? This is very difficult to answer. A scholar in the year 1000 might have expected the Day of Judgement to be at hand. If the world was to be spared for another millennium, the scholar might have hoped a return to the ways of the ancient world, which were seen as the ultimate standard of civilization up to about 1800. But he certainly would not have foreseen the explosion in science and technology, in the last two hundred years. Yet, at least at the end of the second millennium, the world is inhabited by people who are much the same as those in the year 1000. By the year 3000, this may well no longer be true. We can extrapolate existing trends, but the unexpected will probably happen, as it has in the past.
机译：我希望与您一起展望未来，以了解我们对世界的了解以及我们的技术将如何发展。正如《星球大战》（Star Wars）电影和《星际迷航》（Star Trek）系列的受欢迎程度所表明的那样，人们对未来充满了兴趣。从H. G. Wells开始，我们所展示的几乎所有未来愿景基本上都是静态的。它们显示了一个在大多数情况下都领先于我们，科学，技术和政治组织的社会。 （最后一点可能并不困难。）到我们看到未来时，科学，技术和社会组织应该已经达到了近乎完美的水平。例如，电影《 2001：太空漫游》向我们展示了一个月球基地，载人飞船，或者有人说飞往木星的飞行（图1）。我看不到我们要在年底之前解决这个问题！我们现在的期望如此之高，以至于有些人被政治家和科学家欺骗，因为我们尚未实现对乌托邦的未来愿景。那么，在下一个千年中，我们将如何发展科学技术？这很难回答。 1000年的学者可能已经预料到了审判日。如果要使世界再保留一个千年，学者可能希望重返古老的世界，被视为直到1800年左右的文明的最高标准。但是他当然不会预见到世界的爆炸。科学技术，近两百年来。但是，至少在第二个千年末期，世界上居住着与1000年大致相同的人。到3000年，这可能不再正确。我们可以推断出现有趋势，但是意外的情况可能会像过去一样发生。

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