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Earthquake risk assessment

机译：地震风险评估

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The assessment of earthquake risk in portfolio, urban or regional scale constitutes an important element in the mitigation of economic and social losses due to earthquakes, planning of immediate post-earthquake actions as well as for the development of earthquake insurance schemes. Earthquake risk assessment methodologies consider and combine three main factors: earthquake hazard, fragility/vulnerability and inventory of assets exposed to hazard. These factors exhibit aleatory and epistemic uncertainties embedded in their various components. Challenges exist in the characterization of the earthquake hazard as well as in the determination of the fragilities/vulnerabilities of the physical and social elements exposed to the hazard. The simulation of the spatially correlated fields of ground motion using empirical models of correlation between intensity measures is an important tool for hazard characterization. Vulnerability relationships for physical elements, derived from empirical, analytical or expert opinion based methods, provide the probability of loss ratio, conditional on a level of intensity measure. The uncertainties involved in these relationships and especially the correlation in these uncertainties are important to obtain the bounds of the expected losses. Rather simplified procedures exist for the rapid post-earthquake assessment of physical, social and economic losses. The reduction of the uncertainties inherent in the basic ingredients of such rapid earthquake loss assessment is an important issue that needs to be tackled in the future for their viability and reliability. The uncertainties inherent in the determination of exposed assets and their fragilities/vulnerabilities needs to be tackled in the future for the viability and reliability of such rapid loss assessments. The commonly used risk metrics in earthquake insurance are the Average Annual Loss and Loss Exceedance Probability curves. A rigorous treatment of uncertainty and correlation are needed for the proper estimation of these metrics and earthquake insurance related decisions. This paper looks at the current practices in regional and urban earthquake risk assessment, discusses current issues and provides illustrative applications.
机译：对投资组合，城市或区域规模的地震风险的评估构成了由于地震，立即发生地震行动的规划以及地震保险计划而减缓经济和社会损失的重要因素。地震风险评估方法考虑并结合了三个主要因素：地震危害，脆弱/脆弱性和危险的资产库存。这些因素表现出嵌入在各种组件中的杀菌和认知不确定性。存在挑战在地震危害的表征中，以及确定暴露于危险的身体和社会元素的脆弱性/脆弱性。使用强度措施之间的相关性的经验模型模拟地面运动的空间相关领域是危害表征的重要工具。物理元素的脆弱性关系，来自实证，分析或专家意见的方法，提供了损失比率的概率，条件在强度测量水平上。这些关系中涉及的不确定性以及这些不确定性中的相关性的相关性对于获得预期损失的范围是重要的。相当简单的程序存在于迅速地震后对物理，社会和经济损失的评估。减少这种快速地震损失评估的基本成分固有的不确定性是一个重要的问题，需要在未来应对可行性和可靠性。确定暴露资产和脆弱性/脆弱性固有的不确定性，需要在未来解决此类快速损失评估的可行性和可靠性。地震保险中的常用风险指标是年平均损失和损失超标概率曲线。对这些指标和地震保险有关的决策进行适当估计，需要严格处理不确定度和相关性。本文介绍了区域和城市地震风险评估的现行实践，讨论了当前问题并提供了说明性应用。

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