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首页> 外文期刊>Bulletin of earthquake engineering >Parametric sensitivity study on regional seismic damage prediction of reinforced masonry buildings based on time-history analysis
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Parametric sensitivity study on regional seismic damage prediction of reinforced masonry buildings based on time-history analysis

机译：基于时际历史分析的增强砌体建筑区域地震损伤预测的参数敏感性研究

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摘要

Regional seismic damage prediction is an important approach to discover the weakness of a city so as to effectively mitigate seismic losses. A major proportion of regional seismic losses is caused by masonry buildings. As a result, an accurate prediction of the regional seismic damage to masonry buildings has significant engineering and scientific values. Various parameters of the computational models for regional seismic damage predictions usually involve considerable uncertainty, especially for masonry buildings. Therefore, a parametric sensitivity analysis for the regional seismic damage prediction of reinforced masonry buildings is performed in some detail in this study. Damage to this kind of buildings is predicted through nonlinear time-history analysis using the multiple-degree-of-freedom shear model, which can better represent the features of different buildings and ground motions. In the sensitivity analysis, two widely used methods, the first-order second-moment (FOSM) method and the Monte Carlo method, are adopted and their prediction results are compared. The outcomes of this study indicate that the uncertainty of parameters has a small influence on the analysis results when the total number of regional buildings is large. However the uncertainty cannot be neglected for individual building analysis. In addition, the FOSM method, which is more time-saving, can achieve a similar level of prediction as the Monte Carlo simulation.
机译：区域地震损伤预测是发现城市疲软的重要方法，以便有效减轻地震损失。区域地震损失的主要比例是由砌体建筑引起的。结果，对砌体建筑物的区域地震损伤的准确预测具有重要的工程和科学价值。区域地震损伤预测的计算模型的各种参数通常涉及相当大的不确定性，特别是对于砌体建筑。因此，在这项研究中，在一些细节中进行了加强砌体建筑区域地震损伤预测的参数敏感性分析。通过使用多度自由度剪切模型的非线性时间历史分析预测了这种建筑物的损坏，这可以更好地代表不同建筑物和地面运动的特征。在灵敏度分析中，采用了两个广泛使用的方法，一阶二阶（FOSM）方法和蒙特卡罗方法，并进行了预测结果。该研究的结果表明，当区域建筑物总数大时，参数的不确定性对分析结果具有很小的影响。然而，对于个体建筑分析，不能忽视不确定性。此外，更节省的FOSM方法可以实现与蒙特卡罗模拟相似的预测水平。

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