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Impacts of climate change on apple tree cultivation areas in Iran

机译：气候变化对伊朗苹果树栽培区的影响

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Climate change is the most important challenge for human advance in the future. The horticultural sector is sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. In the present study, to reveal the climate change of the future period on the apple tree cultivation areas in Iran, the simulated data from the HadGEM2-ES coupled model output from the CMIP5 model series under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios as cynical and optimistic scenarios. The results showed that the increase of air temperature under the conditions of climate change is a serious stress for the deciduous trees in cold regions of Iran because it will reduce the regions for cultivating trees like apples. Climate change and changes in temperature patterns will cause changes in agroclimatic indexes associated with fruit trees. Typically, the minimum and maximum temperature of the apple tree growth period during the baseline will change according to the pessimistic scenario from 11.6 and 27.3 degrees C to 16.7 and 33.4 degrees C in the 2090s. Changes in the temperature indices and agroclimatic indices are higher than the vulnerability threshold for apple trees, showing the effect of climate change on fruit trees. In the upcoming period, the suitable area for apple tree cultivation in Iran will reach 29,073,448ha. In fact, 46.7% of apple tree cultivation areas will be lost. Under the climate change conditions, the cultivation of apple trees in Iran will be extended to higher regions. An increase in air temperature will threaten deciduous trees in the cold regions of Iran.
机译：气候变化是未来人类进步最重要的挑战。园艺行业敏感，易受气候变化的影响。在本研究中，为了揭示伊朗苹果树栽培区域未来期间的气候变化，来自RCP8.5和RCP4.5在RCP8.5和RCP4.5场景下的CMIP5型号系列的耦合模型的模拟数据作为愤世嫉俗和乐观的情景。结果表明，气候变化条件下的空气温度的增加是伊朗寒冷地区落叶树的严重压力，因为它会减少培养苹果这样的树木的区域。气候变化和温度模式的变化将导致与果树相关的鸡尾线索引的变化。通常，基线期间苹果树生长期的最小和最高温度将根据2090年代的11.6和27.3度至16.7和33.4摄氏度的悲观情景而改变。温度指数和旧货积指数的变化高于苹果树的脆弱阈值，显示气候变化对果树的影响。在即将到来的期间，伊朗苹果树种植的合适区域将达到29,073,448HA。事实上，46.7％的苹果树栽培区域将会丢失。在气候变化条件下，伊朗苹果树的培养将扩展到更高地区。气温的增加将威胁伊朗寒冷地区的落叶树。

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