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首页> 外文期刊>Ecological Applications >The cresting wave: larval settlement and ocean temperatures predict change in the American lobster harvest
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The cresting wave: larval settlement and ocean temperatures predict change in the American lobster harvest

机译：凤凰波：幼虫和海洋温度预测美国龙虾收获的变化

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摘要

Adding to the challenge of predicting fishery recruitment in a changing environment is downscaling predictions to capture locally divergent trends over a species’ range. In recent decades, the American lobster (Homarus americanus) fishery has shifted poleward along the northwest Atlantic coast, one of the most rapidly warming regions of the world’s oceans. Building on evidence that early post-settlement life stages predict future fishery recruitment, we describe enhancements to a forecasting model that predict landings using an annual larval settlement index from 62 fixed sites among 10 study areas from Rhode Island, USA to New Brunswick, Canada. The model is novel because it incorporates local bottom temperature and disease prevalence to scale spatial and temporal changes in growth and mortality. For nine of these areas, adding environmental predictors significantly improved model performance, capturing a landings surge in the eastern Gulf of Maine, and collapse in southern New England. On the strength of these analyses, we project landings within the next decade to decline to near historical levels in the Gulf of Maine and no recovery in the south. This approach is timely as downscaled ocean temperature projections enable decision makers to assess their options under future climate scenarios at finer spatial scales.
机译：在改变环境中预测渔业招聘的挑战是缩小的预测，以捕获物种范围的局部发散趋势。近几十年来，美国龙虾（Homarus Americanus）渔业沿着西北大西洋沿岸向北转向了世界上最迅速变暖的地区。建立了提前结算后的居住阶段预测未来渔业招聘的证据，我们描述了对预测模型的增强，这些模型预测使用来自罗德岛的10个固定网站的年度幼虫结算指数，从美国罗德岛，加拿大新的布伦瑞克。该模型是新颖的，因为它纳入了局部底部温度和疾病流行，以规模生长和死亡率的空间和时间变化。对于这些领域的九个，增加了环境预测变量显着提高了模型性能，捕获了缅因州东部的着陆激增，并在新英格兰南部崩溃。关于这些分析的实力，我们在未来十年内投射着陆，以衰落到缅因州湾的历史水平，南部没有康复。这种方法及时，较低的海洋温度投影使决策者能够在更精细的空间尺度下在未来的气候情景下评估其选择。

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