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Nonlinear analysis of the occurrence of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea

机译：墨西哥湾飓风发生的非线性分析及加勒比海

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摘要

Hurricanes are complex systems that carry large amounts of energy. Their impact often produces natural disasters involving the loss of human lives and materials, such as infrastructure, valued at billions of US dollars. However, not everything about hurricanes is negative, as hurricanes are the main source of rainwater for the regions where they develop. This study shows a nonlinear analysis of the time series of the occurrence of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea obtained from 1749 to 2012. The construction of the hurricane time series was carried out based on the hurricane database of the North Atlantic basin hurricane database (HURDAT) and the published historical information. The hurricane time series provides a unique historical record on information about ocean-atmosphere interactions. The Lyapunov exponent indicated that the system presented chaotic dynamics, and the spectral analysis and nonlinear analyses of the time series of the hurricanes showed chaotic edge behavior. One possible explanation for this chaotic edge is the individual chaotic behavior of hurricanes, either by category or individually regardless of their category and their behavior on a regular basis.
机译：飓风是复杂的系统，携带大量能量。它们的影响往往会产生涉及人类生活和材料的丧失的自然灾害，例如基础设施，价值数十亿美元。然而，没有关于飓风的一切是消极的，因为飓风是他们发展的区域的雨水的主要来源。本研究表明，墨西哥湾飓风发生的时间序列和从1749年至2012年获得的加勒比海的时间序列的非线性分析。飓风时间序列的建设是基于北大西洋盆地的飓风数据库进行飓风数据库（Hurdat）和已发表的历史信息。飓风时间系列提供了关于海洋气氛互动的信息的独特历史记录。 Lyapunov指数表明该系统呈现了混沌动态，并且飓风的时间序列的光谱分析和非线性分析显示了混沌边缘行为。这种混乱边缘的一个可能的解释是飓风的个体混乱行为，无论是定期的类别和他们的行为如何，都是单独的。

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