...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>African Journal of Ecology >Understanding future ecosystem changes in Lake Victoria basin using participatory local scenarios
【24h】

Understanding future ecosystem changes in Lake Victoria basin using participatory local scenarios

机译：使用参与性本地方案了解维多利亚湖流域未来的生态系统变化

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Understanding future ecosystem changes is central to sustainable natural resource management especially when coupled with in-depth understanding of impacts of drivers, such as governance, demographic, economic and climate variations and land use policy. This offers comprehensive information for sustainable ecosystem services provision. A foresight process of systematic and presumptive assessment of future state and ecosystem integrity of Lake Victoria basin, as participatory scenario building technique, is presented. Four scenarios have been illustrated as possible future states of the basin over the next twenty years. Using a scenario building model developed in Ventana Simulation (VENSIM (R)) platform, the paper presents a scenario methodology for tracking changes in lake basin ecosystem status. Plausible trends in land use change, changes in lake levels and contribution of fisheries are presented. This is part of an initial attempt to setup long-term environmental policy planning strategies for Lake Victoria basin. The assumptions, driving forces, impacts and opportunities under each scenario depict major departure and convergence points for an integrated transboundary diagnosis and analysis of regional issues in the basin as well as strategic action planning for long-term interventions. The findings have been presented in terms of temporal, spatial, biophysical and human well-being dimensions. The attempts in this study can be embedded in a policy framework for basin management priority setting and may guide partnerships for environmental management.
机译：了解未来的生态系统变化对于可持续自然资源管理至关重要，尤其是在深入了解驱动力的影响（例如治理，人口，经济和气候变化以及土地使用政策）时。这为可持续的生态系统服务提供提供了全面的信息。作为参与情景构建技术，提出了对维多利亚湖盆地未来状态和生态系统完整性进行系统和推测性评估的前瞻性过程。已经说明了四种情景，作为未来二十年该盆地未来的可能状态。利用在Ventana Simulation（VENSIM）平台中开发的情景构建模型，本文提出了一种情景方法论，用于跟踪湖泊流域生态系统状态的变化。提出了土地利用变化，湖泊水位变化和渔业贡献的合理趋势。这是为维多利亚湖流域制定长期环境政策规划策略的初步尝试的一部分。在每种情况下的假设，驱动力，影响和机会描绘了流域区域问题的综合越境诊断和分析以及长期干预的战略行动计划的主要出发点和趋同点。已经从时间，空间，生物物理和人类福祉方面提出了研究结果。这项研究的尝试可以嵌入到流域管理重点确定的政策框架中，并可以指导环境管理伙伴关系。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号