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首页> 外文期刊>Seismological research letters >The Forecasting Skill of Physics-Based Seismicity Models during the 2010-2012 Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake Sequence
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The Forecasting Skill of Physics-Based Seismicity Models during the 2010-2012 Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake Sequence

机译：2010 - 2012年坎特伯雷，新西兰，地震序列的物理学地震型模型预测技能

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The static coulomb stress hypothesis is a widely known physical mechanism for earthquake triggering and thus a prime candidate for physics-based operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). However, the forecast skill of coulomb-based seismicity models remains controversial, especially compared with empirical statistical models. A previous evaluation by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) concluded that a suite of coulomb-based seismicity models were less informative than empirical models during the aftershock sequence of the 1992 M-w 7.3 Landers, California, earthquake. Recently, a new generation of coulomb-based and coulomb/statistical hybrid models were developed that account better for uncertainties and secondary stress sources. Here, we report on the performance of this new suite of models compared with empirical epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models during the 2010-2012 Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence. Comprising the 2010 M 7.1 Darfield earthquake and three subsequent M = 5.9 shocks (including the February 2011 Christchurch earthquake), this sequence provides a wealth of data (394 M = 3.95 shocks). We assessed models over multiple forecast horizons (1 day, 1 month, and 1 yr, updated after M = 5.9 shocks). The results demonstrate substantial improvements in the coulomb-based models. Purely physics-based models have a performance comparable to the ETAS model, and the two coulomb/statistical hybrids perform better or similar to the corresponding statistical model. On the other hand, an ETAS model with anisotropic (fault-based) aftershock zones is just as informative. These results provide encouraging evidence for the predictive power of coulomb-based models. To assist with model development, we identify discrepancies between forecasts and observations.
机译：静态库仑应力假设是地震触发的广泛已知的物理机制，从而是基于物理的运营地震预测（OEF）的主要候选者。然而，基于库仑的地震性模型的预测技能仍然存在争议，特别是与经验统计模型相比。对地震可预测性研究（CSESEP）进行协作的先前评估得出结论认为，在1992年M-W 7.3载机的余震序列期间，一套基于库仑的地震性模型比实证模型更少。最近，开发了一种新一代的库仑和库仑/统计混合模型，该模型更适合不确定性和二次应力来源。在这里，我们在2010 - 2010-2012坎特伯雷，新西兰，地震序列中与经验疫情型余震序列（ETAS）模型相比，报告了这一新型模型的表现。包括2010年M 7.1达尔菲尔德地震和三个随后的M＆GT; = 5.9冲击（包括2011年2月基督城地震），这个序列提供了丰富的数据（394 M＆GT; = 3.95冲击）。我们评估了多个预测视野的模型（1天，1个月，1年，在M＆GT之后更新; = 5.9冲击）。结果表明了基于库仑的模型的大量改进。基于物理的模型具有与ETAS模型相当的性能，并且两个库仑/统计混合动力器更好地或类似于相应的统计模型。另一方面，具有各向异性（基于故障的）余震区域的ETAS模型与信息一样。这些结果为基于库仑的模型的预测力提供了令人鼓舞的证据。为了协助模型开发，我们确定预测和观察之间的差异。

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