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首页> 外文期刊>The International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology >Climate variability, farmland value, and farmers' perceptions of climate change: implications for adaptation in rural Pakistan
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Climate variability, farmland value, and farmers' perceptions of climate change: implications for adaptation in rural Pakistan

机译：气候变异性，农田价值和农民对气候变化的看法：对巴基斯坦农村适应的影响

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Many studies have examined the impact of climatic variability on agricultural productivity, although an understanding of these effects on farmland values and their relationship to farmers' decisions to adapt and modify their land-use practices remains nascent in developing nations. We estimated the impacts of the deviation in our study year's (2012) temperature and precipitation patterns from medium-term (1980-2011) climatic patterns on farmland values in Pakistan. This was accomplished by employing a modified form of a Ricardian regression model. We also examined farmers' perceptions of climate change during this period, as well as their perceptions of climate change impacts on farm productivity, in addition to past and anticipated farm adaptation strategies. Our results indicate that positive temperature deviation from the medium-term mean - indicative of climatic change - affects farmland values in Pakistan. Deviation in annual cumulative precipitation conversely appears to have no significant impact. Estimates of the marginal impact of temperature deviation suggested a slight but negative linear relationship with farmland values. The location of farms in areas where farmers can avail financial or extension services conversely had a positive impact on farmland values, as did the availability of irrigation facilities. Our analysis of farmers' perceptions of climate change and their consequent adaptation behavior indicated a relatively high degree of awareness of climatic variability that influenced a number of proactive and future anticipated farm adaptation strategies. Examples included increased use of irrigation and farm enterprise diversification, as well as land-use change, including shifting from agriculture into alternative land uses. National policy in Pakistan underscores the importance of maintaining a productive rural agricultural sector. Our findings consequently highlight the importance of appropriate adaptation strategies to maintain both farm productivity and farmland values in much of Pakistan. The implications of increased extension and financial services to enhance farmers' potential for climate change adaptation are discussed.
机译：许多研究检测了气候变异性对农业生产力的影响，尽管对农田价值观及其与农民决定的影响，以适应和修改其土地使用做法的影响仍然是发展中国家的新生。我们估计了从中期（1980-2011）气候模式对巴基斯坦农田价值的中学生（2012年）温度和降水模式的影响。这是通过采用Ricardian回归模型的修改形式来实现的。除了过去和预期的农场适应策略之外，我们还研究了农民对气候变化的对气候变化的看法，以及过去和预期的农场适应策略。我们的结果表明，来自中期平均值的正温度偏差 - 指示气候变化 - 影响巴基斯坦的耕地价值。相反，累计累计降水量的偏差似乎没有显着影响。温度偏差边际影响的估计表明与耕地价值轻微但负面的线性关系。农民在农民可以利用金融或延期服务的地区的位置相反地对耕地价值产生积极影响，就像灌溉设施的可用性一样。我们对农民对气候变化的看法及其改造行为的看法表明了对气候变异性的相对高度的认识，影响了许多积极和未来的预期农场适应策略。例子包括增加利用灌溉和农业企业多样化，以及土地利用变化，包括从农业转移到替代土地使用中。巴基斯坦国家政策强调了维持生产农村农业部门的重要性。我们的调查结果强调了适当适当的适应策略，以维持在巴基斯坦大部分地区的农业生产力和农田价值的重要性。讨论了增加的延期和金融服务提升农民气候变化适应潜力的影响。

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