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首页> 外文期刊>Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences >Increasing water temperatures exacerbate the potential for density dependence in juvenile steelhead
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Increasing water temperatures exacerbate the potential for density dependence in juvenile steelhead

机译：增加水温加剧了少年钢头密度依赖性的潜力

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摘要

We studied the potential effects of predicted climate change on the energetic demands of juvenile steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and their consequences for local population size and structure in Idaho, USA. Projected increases in water temperature incurred on average a 10% higher energetic cost by 2040 (range 7.0%-12.5% among study reaches in the watershed) and a 16% increase (range 8.5%-21.3%) by 2080 following the A1B scenario. The predicted increase in energetic cost was largest in the coolest stream reaches, where the proportional increases in energetic cost exceed that of temperature. Energetically, and in absence of increases in food supply, local densities were consequently expected to decline. We examined which factors best described the shape of current size distributions to explore future size distributions as temperatures increase. Mass distribution skewness was best explained by local biomass (positive relationship) and water temperature (negative relationship). The results suggest that local steelhead cohorts will approach a platykurtic, slightly negatively skewed distribution with increasing temperatures and demonstrate that temperature can exacerbate demographic density dependence in fish populations.
机译：我们研究了预测气候变化对幼年金枪鱼（Oncorhynchus mykiss）能量需求的潜在影响，以及它们对爱达荷州当地人口规模和结构的影响，美国。预计到2040年，水温将平均增加10%的能源成本（流域内研究河段的能源成本范围为7.0%-12.5%），到2080年，在A1B情景下，水温将平均增加16%（范围为8.5%-21.3%）。预测的能量消耗增加在最冷的河流河段最大，在那里，能量消耗的比例增加超过了温度。在粮食供应没有增加的情况下，当地的人口密度因此预计会下降。我们研究了哪些因素最能描述当前粒度分布的形状，以探索未来随着温度升高的粒度分布。质量分布偏斜最好用当地生物量（正相关）和水温（负相关）来解释。研究结果表明，随着温度的升高，当地的钢头鱼群将接近平底型，略微呈负偏态分布，并证明温度会加剧鱼类种群对人口密度的依赖。

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