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A simplified vulnerability model for the extensive liquefaction risk assessment of buildings

机译：建筑物广泛液化风险评估的简化脆弱性模型

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摘要

The quantitative assessment of natural risks offers a rational strategy to protect communities, undertake cost effective mitigation and plan the organic and sustainable development of urban systems. For cascade events such as earthquake-induced liquefaction, assessment implies to characterize and reconstruct the areal distribution of seismic hazard, subsoil susceptibility, physical vulnerability, economic and social relevance of structures and to combine all factors in a unitary predictive model. Considering that aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty affect the characteristic variables and their mutual correlation, it is also necessary to quantify their influence on the prediction. Within this framework, a vulnerability model is proposed to comprehensively assess the physical damage of buildings in an urban system. A chain method is formulated combining calculation schemes recently introduced in the literature with ad hoc numerical analyses. The effectiveness of the method is tested comparing prediction with the effects observed in the city of Christchurch during the 22nd February 2011 earthquake. The unprecedented documentation available after this earthquake enables to validate different components of the model and disclose the importance of possible disregarded factors. A geostatistical methodology is proposed throughout the paper to process data, quantify and govern the different uncertainty factors.
机译：对自然风险的定量评估提供了一种合理的策略，以保护社区，进行成本效益的缓解，并规划城市系统的有机和可持续发展。对于地震诱发液化等级联事件，评估意味着描述和重建地震危险的区域分布、底土敏感性、物理脆弱性、结构的经济和社会相关性，并将所有因素结合在一个单一预测模型中。考虑到知觉变异性和认知不确定性影响特征变量及其相互关系，也有必要量化它们对预测的影响。在此框架内，提出了一个脆弱性模型，用于全面评估城市系统中建筑物的物理损坏。将最近在文献中引入的计算方案与特别的数值分析相结合，提出了一种链式方法。将预测结果与2011年2月22日克赖斯特彻奇市地震期间观测到的效果进行比较，验证了该方法的有效性。这次地震后，史无前例的可用文件能够验证模型的不同组成部分，并揭示可能忽略的因素的重要性。本文提出了一种地质统计学方法来处理数据、量化和管理不同的不确定性因素。

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