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An updated probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Pakistan

机译：巴基斯坦更新的概率地震危险评估（PSHA）

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In this study, an updated probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) of Pakistan region is performed using the procedures developed for the US National Seismic Hazard Maps and the Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME14). It is based on the combination of conventional area sources model and the spatially smoothed gridded seismicity model with crustal faults. An updated earthquake catalogue is compiled using several international and national databases. The background seismicity of the study area is modeled using both the area source zones and the spatially smoothed gridded seismicity approach. A total of 110 crustal fault sources are modeled using their geological slip rates obtained from the database developed by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM). The Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) is also modeled using a combination of inclined area source zone and the spatially smoothed seismicity approach. Several Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) developed by the PEER Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) initiative are employed to estimate the hazard at bedrock level. The logic tree procedure is used to deal with the epistemic uncertainties associated with the source models and the GMPEs. The updated hazard maps for the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Spectral Accelerations (SA) at natural periods of 0.2 s, 1 s and 2 s are developed for the 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (DBE and MCE levels, respectively). The hazard curves and Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS) for several major cities of Pakistan are also presented. The results provide an updated understanding of the seismic hazard in Pakistan. The presented hazard maps, curves and spectra can be used for the structural design of new buildings as well as the performance assessment of existing buildings. They also provide an improved basis for the policy formulation and planning for effective disaster risk reduction in the region.
机译：在本研究中，使用美国国家地震灾害图和中东地震模型（EMME14）开发的程序，对巴基斯坦地区进行了更新的概率地震灾害评估（PSHA）。它基于常规面源模型和带地壳断层的空间平滑网格地震活动模型的组合。利用几个国际和国家数据库汇编了一份最新的地震目录。研究区域的背景地震活动采用面源区和空间平滑网格地震活动方法进行建模。利用全球地震模型（GEM）开发的数据库中获得的地质滑动速率，对总共110个地壳断层源进行了建模。Makran俯冲带（MSZ）也使用倾斜区域震源区和空间平滑地震活动方法的组合进行建模。几个由同行下一代衰减（NGA）倡议开发的地震动预测方程（GMPEs）被用于估计基岩水平的危害。逻辑树程序用于处理与源模型和GMPE相关的认知不确定性。针对50年内10%和2%的超标概率（分别为DBE和MCE水平），开发了0.2秒、1秒和2秒自然周期的峰值地面加速度（PGA）和谱加速度（SA）的更新危险图。还介绍了巴基斯坦几个主要城市的危险曲线和统一危险谱（UHS）。研究结果提供了对巴基斯坦地震灾害的最新认识。所提供的危险图、曲线和光谱可用于新建筑的结构设计以及现有建筑的性能评估。它们还为该区域有效减少灾害风险的政策制定和规划提供了更好的基础。

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