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首页> 外文期刊>Bulletin of earthquake engineering >Accounting for spatial correlation in the empirical scoring of probabilistic seismic hazard estimates
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Accounting for spatial correlation in the empirical scoring of probabilistic seismic hazard estimates

机译：概率地震危险估计实证评分中的空间相关性

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摘要

A procedure is here proposed to score probabilistic seismic hazard estimates provided by ergodic models by a comparison with accelerometric observations available during a control period. The procedure allows accounting for the potential bias induced by spatial correlation of hazard estimates due to the use of ground motion prediction equations in the modeling. Since this bias depends on the specific topological features of the studied system (relative positions of seismic sources and accelerometric control sites), numerical simulations are considered to correct it. An application of the above procedure is proposed for Italy where some probabilistic seismic hazard estimates have been provided in the last years, and where 76 accelerometric sites have been operating for more than 25 years. It is shown that, at least as the case study concerns, the amount of spatial correlation in the hazard estimates is relatively weak, it depends on the GMPE used in computations and increases with the exceedance probabilities and with the period of the acceleration response spectrum.
机译：本文提出了一种程序，通过与控制期内可用的加速度观测值进行比较，对遍历模型提供的概率地震危险性估计值进行评分。该程序允许考虑由于在建模中使用地震动预测方程而导致的危险估计的空间相关性引起的潜在偏差。由于这种偏差取决于所研究系统的特定拓扑特征（震源和加速度控制点的相对位置），因此考虑通过数值模拟来纠正这种偏差。建议将上述程序应用于意大利，意大利在过去几年中提供了一些概率地震危险性估计，76个加速度计场地已运行超过25年。结果表明，至少就案例研究而言，危险估计中的空间相关性相对较弱，它取决于计算中使用的GMPE，并随着超越概率和加速度反应谱的周期而增加。

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