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Megazonation of earthquake-induced soil liquefaction hazard in continental Europe

机译：大陆欧洲地震诱导土壤液化危害的兆

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Mapping large territories for earthquake-induced soil liquefaction hazard may sound like an oxymoron since soil liquefaction is by itself a spatially highly localized phenomenon. Thus, the zonation of liquefaction hazard at the continental scale (i.e. megazonation) is a truly hard facing challenge even if accepting a low level accuracy. Yet, the availability of a megazonation chart of liquefaction hazard could be useful to identify territories that in case of an earthquake may display this phenomenon of soil instability distinguishing them from the regions where soil liquefaction is not expected even in case of strong ground shaking. A representation of the spatial variability of liquefaction hazard potential within a single country is within reach considering the resolution and accuracy of geological and geotechnical information that is currently available in the most developed nations. The LIQUEFACT project fully addressed in a specific work package the problem of constructing georeferenced, earthquake-induced soil liquefaction hazard maps in continental Europe for various return periods. They were built using homogeneous datasets in Europe on the expected seismic hazard and on the geological, geomorphological, hydrogeological, shallow lithology and digital terrain information. A probabilistic prediction model based on a logistic regression for liquefaction occurrence was purposely developed using a set of optimal geospatial predictors (explanatory variables) which include the weighted-magnitude peak ground acceleration, the weighted-mean shear-wave velocity in the top 30 m (V-S30) and the compound topographic index. The optimal geospatial descriptors were selected based on the Luco and Cornell methodology, namely on the criteria of efficiency, practicality and proficiency. To calibrate and successively validate the logistic regression, a database of liquefaction manifestations occurred in continental Europe was used. Although the level of accuracy provided by these models at a local scale is low, still the availability of continental charts of liquefaction hazard may help policy makers and administrators to prioritize which urbanized territories should be investigated further to assess the seismic risk of structures and infrastructures associated to the occurrence of soil liquefaction.
机译：绘制大面积区域的地震诱发土壤液化危险图听起来可能有点矛盾，因为土壤液化本身就是一种空间高度局部化的现象。因此，即使接受较低的精度，在大陆范围内的液化危险分区（即巨分区）也是一个真正困难的挑战。然而，液化危险的大分区图的可用性可能有助于确定地震时可能显示这种土壤不稳定现象的区域，将其与即使在强烈地面震动的情况下也预计不会发生土壤液化的区域区分开来。考虑到大多数发达国家目前可用的地质和岩土工程信息的分辨率和准确性，一个国家内液化危险潜在的空间变异性的表示是可以实现的。液化项目在一个具体的工作包中充分解决了在欧洲大陆不同重现期绘制地理参考地震诱发土壤液化危险图的问题。它们是利用欧洲关于预期地震灾害的同质数据集以及地质、地貌、水文地质、浅层岩性和数字地形信息建立的。利用一组最佳地理空间预测因子（解释变量），有目的地开发了基于液化发生的逻辑回归的概率预测模型，其中包括加权震级峰值地面加速度、顶部30m的加权平均剪切波速（V-S30）和复合地形指数。最佳地理空间描述符的选择基于Luco和Cornell方法，即基于效率、实用性和熟练程度的标准。为了校准并相继验证逻辑回归，使用了欧洲大陆液化表现数据库。尽管这些模型在局部范围内提供的精度水平较低，但液化危险大陆图的可用性可能有助于决策者和管理者优先考虑应进一步调查哪些城市化地区，以评估与土壤液化发生相关的结构和基础设施的地震风险。

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