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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Hydrology >Modeling projected impacts of climate and land use/land cover changes on hydrological responses in the Lake Tana Basin, upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia
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Modeling projected impacts of climate and land use/land cover changes on hydrological responses in the Lake Tana Basin, upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

机译：埃塞俄比亚高蓝尼罗河河流域水文反应的气候和土地利用/陆地覆盖变化的建模投影影响

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This study is being conducted in Lake Tana Basin, Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia. This work focuses on the assessment of the separate and combined impacts on water balance components of both climate and LULC change. For calibration, validation and uncertainty analysis, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used in conjunction with the IPEAT (Integrated Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis Tool) package. To produce high resolution future climate data from CanESM2 GCM that could be used for impact assessment, the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) was used while the future LULC prediction was generated using Cellular Automata-Markov Chain model. The hydrological response of the basin was assessed by dividing the future time periods in to 2020s (2011-2040), 2050s (2041-2070), and 2080s (2071-2100) through incorporating three scenarios, such as LULC change alone, climate change alone and combined climate and LULC change. The prediction of the LULC change using the CA-Markov chain model indicates that cropland, tree cover, and built-up areas are likely to increase by 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s at the expense of grassland and shrub cover areas, leading to an increase in evapotranspiration, baseflow and streamflow conditions in the basin. By considering basin average, the climate prediction result suggests an increase in both Tmax (up to 2.14 degrees C) and Tmin (up to 3.2 degrees C) temperatures, whereas precipitation would increase by up to 25% in the basin. The results show an increase of evapotranspiration by up to 0.84%, 59.8% and 55.5% under LULC, climate and combined climate and LULC change by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5 compared to the baseline period, respectively. Furthermore, both stream-flow and lateral flow are projected to increase by up to 12.85% (9.9%), 28.5% (20.03%) and 26.4% (29.12%) under LULC, climate and combined climate and LULC change scenarios, respectively. As predicted, the shift in magnitude in RCP8.5 emissions is greater than RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. The impacts of climate change on water balances are relatively higher than the combined effects of changes in climate and LULC. Future LULC shifts, on the other hand, change comparatively offsetting hydrological components. In order to devise local-scale adaptation and mitigation strategies, the inclusion of predicted climate and LULC change for hydrological impact studies, is therefore, very useful.
机译：这项研究是在埃塞俄比亚青尼罗河上游的塔纳湖流域进行的。这项工作侧重于评估气候和LULC变化对水平衡组成部分的单独和综合影响。对于校准、验证和不确定性分析，土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）与IPEAT（综合参数估计和不确定性分析工具）包一起使用。为了从CanESM2 GCM生成可用于影响评估的高分辨率未来气候数据，使用了统计降尺度模型（SDSM），同时使用细胞自动机马尔可夫链模型生成未来LULC预测。通过将未来时间段划分为2020年代（2011-2040年）、2050年代（2041-2070年）和2080年代（2071-2100年），并结合三种情景，评估流域的水文响应，如仅LULC变化、仅气候变化以及气候和LULC组合变化。使用CA马尔可夫链模型对LULC变化的预测表明，到2020年代、2050年代和2080年代，农田、树木覆盖和建成区可能会增加，而草地和灌木覆盖面积则会减少，从而导致流域内蒸散量、基流和径流条件的增加。通过考虑流域平均值，气候预测结果表明Tmax（高达2.14摄氏度）和Tmin（高达3.2摄氏度）温度都会增加，而流域内的降水量将增加25%。结果表明，到21世纪末，在RCP8条件下，LULC、气候和气候与LULC联合变化下，蒸散量分别增加了0.84%、59.8%和55.5%。5分别与基线期相比。此外，在LULC、气候以及气候和LULC变化组合情景下，预计溪流和侧流分别将增加12.85%（9.9%）、28.5%（20.03%）和26.4%（29.12%）。正如预测的那样，RCP8的震级变化。5排放量大于RCP2。6和RCP4。5.气候变化对水平衡的影响相对高于气候变化和LULC的综合影响。另一方面，未来LULC的变化相对抵消了水文成分的变化。因此，为了制定当地规模的适应和缓解战略，将预测的气候和LULC变化纳入水文影响研究非常有用。

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