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首页> 外文期刊>AACE International Transactions >A Tale of Two Tails: Chaos in Estimating Predictability
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A Tale of Two Tails: Chaos in Estimating Predictability

机译：两个尾部的故事：混乱估计可预测性

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Chaotic systems are defined as nonlinear dynamic systems that are deterministic, highly sensitive to initial conditions, and ultimately unpredictable. This paper explores the concept of projects as chaotic systems by examining the outer tails of a cost growth histogram of more than 1,700 completed manufacturing industry capital projects. The results of the analysis demonstrate that although the logistical complexity of a project plays a role in the predictability of outcomes, much of this seemingly chaotic behavior is explained by failings in human practices and behaviors. A project-based dynamic model necessarily depends on the sensitivity of the project's initial conditions. In the majority of cases where projects experienced extreme outcomes, either high or low, the outcome's primary driver was that the project's initial conditions were not correctly measured. As such, the project management community's focus should first be on using a means to correctly establish initial conditions for any dynamic model to be rendered representative or useful.
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