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Dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic at constant and time-dependent contact rates

机译：Covid-19流行病在恒定和时间依赖性接触率下的动态

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摘要

We constructed a simple Susceptible{Exposed{Infectious{Removed model of the spread of COVID-19. The model is parametrised only by the average incubation period, , and two rate parameters: contact rate, fi, and exclusion rate, . The rates depend on nontherapeutic interventions and determine the basic reproduction number, R0 = fi=, and, together with , the daily multiplication coefficient in the early exponential phase, . Initial R0 determines the reduction of fi required to contain the spread of the epidemic. We demonstrate that introduction of a cascade of multiple exposed states enables the model to reproduce the distributions of the incubation period and the serial interval reported by epidemiologists. Using the model, we consider a hypothetical scenario in which fi is modulated solely by anticipated changes of social behaviours: first, fi decreases in response to a surge of daily new cases, pressuring people to self-isolate, and then, over longer time scale, fi increases as people gradually accept the risk. In this scenario, initial abrupt epidemic spread is followed by a plateau and slow regression, which, although economically and socially devastating, grants time to develop and deploy vaccine or at least limit daily cases to a manageable number.
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