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首页> 外文期刊>Paleoceanography >A Continuous Record of Central Tropical Pacific Climate Since the Midnineteenth Century Reconstructed From Fanning and Palmyra Island Corals: A Case Study in Coral Data Reanalysis
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A Continuous Record of Central Tropical Pacific Climate Since the Midnineteenth Century Reconstructed From Fanning and Palmyra Island Corals: A Case Study in Coral Data Reanalysis

机译：自最内部世纪以来的帆布和帕尔梅拉岛珊瑚重建以来，中央热带太平洋气候的持续记录：珊瑚数据重新分析的案例研究

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摘要

Accurate estimation of central tropical Pacific (CTP) climate variability on interannual to centennial time scales is required for robust projections of future global climate trends. Here we outline an approach that blends instrumental and coral proxy observations to yield a continuous, monthly resolved record of climate evolution in the CTP spanning the past 160 years. We concatenate coral oxygen isotope (δ~(18)O) records from multiple living and fossil corals collected from Fanning Island (4°N, 160°W) and Palmyra Island (5°N; 162°W) located in the heart of the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation. We use the regularized expectation maximization (RegEM) method to impute missing data across short gaps of 5 to 23 years within and beyond individual coral records. The resulting monthly resolved Fanning/Palmyra Island climate record spans continuously from 1863 to 2016 and provides an example of how extended time series can be built from shorter coral segments. The extended record highlights the strong trend toward warmer and wetter mean conditions in late twentieth century, in agreement with the majority of climate model hindcast simulations. The continuous reconstruction also enables a direct comparison of four exceptionally strong El Ni?o events (1877-1878, 1940-1941, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016). Three of these very strong El Ni?o events in the CTP featured a precursor warm event in the prior year and that may have favored the development of a strong El Ni?o event.
机译：在年际至百年时间尺度上准确估计中热带太平洋（CTP）气候变异性是对未来全球气候趋势进行稳健预测的必要条件。在这里，我们概述了一种方法，该方法将仪器观测和珊瑚替代观测相结合，以获得过去160年中CTP气候演变的连续、每月解析记录。我们连接了从位于厄尔尼诺大陆中心的范宁岛（4°N，160°W）和帕尔米拉岛（5°N，162°W）采集的多种活珊瑚和化石珊瑚的珊瑚氧同位素（δ~（18）O）记录？南方涛动。我们使用正则化期望最大化（regimized expection maximization，RegEM）方法，在单个珊瑚记录之内和之外的5到23年的短时间间隔内估算缺失数据。由此产生的每月解析Fanning/Palmyra岛气候记录持续跨越1863年至2016年，并提供了一个示例，说明如何从较短的珊瑚段构建延长的时间序列。这一扩展记录突显了20世纪末平均条件变暖和湿润的强烈趋势，与大多数气候模型后测模拟结果一致。持续的重建还可以直接比较四个异常强烈的厄尔尼诺现象？o事件（1877-1878、1940-1941、1997-1998和2015-2016）。其中三个是非常强的厄尔尼诺？o CTP中的事件以前一年的温暖事件为特征，可能有利于发展强劲的厄尔尼诺现象？o事件。

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  • 来源
    《Paleoceanography》 |2020年第8期|共15页
  • 作者

    S. C. Sanchez; N. Westphal; G. H. Haug; H. Cheng; R. L. Edwards; T. Schneider; K. M. Cobb; C. D. Charles;

  • 作者单位

    Joint Institute for the Study of Ocean and Atmosphere University of Washington Seattle WA USA;

    Department of Earth Sciences Eidgen?ssische Technische Hochschule-Zentrum Zürich Switzerland;

    Department of Earth Sciences Eidgen?ssische Technische Hochschule-Zentrum Zürich Switzerland;

    Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences University of Minnesota Twin Cities Minneapolis MN USA;

    Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences University of Minnesota Twin Cities Minneapolis MN USA;

    Department of Environmental Science and Engineering California Institute of Technology Pasadena CA USA;

    School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta GA USA;

    Scripps Institution of Oceanography La Jolla CA USA;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 海洋学;
  • 关键词

    Continuous; Record; Central;

    机译：连续;记录;中央;

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