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Progress in climate change adaptation research

机译：气候变化适应研究进展

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The scientific literature on climate change adaptation has become too large to assess manually. Beyond standard scientometrics, questions about if and how the field is progressing thus remain largely unanswered. Here we provide a novel, inquisitive, computer-assisted evidence mapping methodology that combines expert interviews (n = 26) and structural topic modelling to evaluate open-ended research questions on progress in the field. We apply this to 62 191 adaptation-relevant scientific publications (1988-2020), selected through supervised machine learning from a comprehensive climate change query. Comparing the literature to key benchmarks of mature adaptation research, our findings align with trends in the adaptation literature observed by most experts: the field is maturing, growing rapidly, and diversifying, with social science and implementation topics arising next to the still-dominant natural sciences and impacts-focused research. Formally assessing the representativeness of IPCC citations, we find evidence of a delay effect for fast-growing areas of research like adaptation strategies and governance. Similarly, we show significant topic biases by geographic location: especially disaster and development-related topics are often studied in Southern countries by authors from the North, while Northern countries dominate governance topics. Moreover, there is a general paucity of research in some highly vulnerable countries. Experts lastly signal a need for meaningful stakeholder involvement. Expanding on the methods presented here would aid the comprehensive and transparent monitoring of adaptation research. For the evidence synthesis community, our methodology provides an example of how to move beyond the descriptive towards the inquisitive and formally evaluating research questions.
机译：关于气候变化适应的科学文献已经太多，无法手动评估。除了标准的科学计量学，关于该领域是否以及如何进展的问题基本上仍然没有答案。在这里，我们提供了一种新颖的、探究性的、计算机辅助的证据映射方法，该方法结合了专家访谈（n=26）和结构主题建模，以评估该领域进展的开放式研究问题。我们将此应用于62 191份与适应相关的科学出版物（1988-2020年），这些出版物是通过有监督的机器学习从全面的气候变化查询中选择的。将文献与成熟适应研究的关键基准进行比较，我们的发现与大多数专家观察到的适应文献趋势一致：该领域正在成熟、快速增长和多样化，社会科学和实施主题出现在仍然占主导地位的自然科学和以影响为重点的研究之后。在正式评估IPCC引文的代表性时，我们发现证据表明，在适应策略和治理等快速增长的研究领域，存在延迟效应。同样，我们也显示了地理位置对主题的显著偏见：尤其是与灾害和发展相关的主题通常由北方的作者在南方国家进行研究，而北方国家主导着治理主题。此外，一些高度脆弱的国家普遍缺乏研究。最后，专家们表示，需要利益相关者进行有意义的参与。扩展本文介绍的方法将有助于对适应研究进行全面和透明的监测。对于证据综合社区，我们的方法论提供了一个例子，说明了如何从描述性转向探究性和正式评估研究问题。

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