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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the Royal Society. Biological sciences >Town population size and structuring into villages and households drive infectious disease risks in pre-healthcare Finland
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Town population size and structuring into villages and households drive infectious disease risks in pre-healthcare Finland

机译：城镇人口规模和结构陷入村庄和家庭，在医疗前芬兰推动传染病风险

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摘要

Social life is often considered to cost in terms of increased parasite or pathogen risk. However, evidence for this in the wild remains equivocal, possibly because populations and social groups are often structured, which affects the local transmission and extinction of diseases. We test how the structuring of towns into villages and households influenced the risk of dying from three easily diagnosable infectious diseases-smallpox, pertussis and measles-using a novel dataset covering almost all of Finland in the pre-healthcare era (1800-1850). Consistent with previous results, the risk of dying from all three diseases increased with the local population size. However, the division of towns into a larger number of villages decreased the risk of dying from smallpox and to some extent of pertussis but it slightly increased the risk for measles. Dividing towns into a larger number of households increased the length of the epidemic for all three diseases and led to the expected slower spread of the infection. However, this could be seen only when local population sizes were small. Our results indicate that the effect of population structure on epidemics, disease or parasite risk varies between pathogens and population sizes, hence lowering the ability to generalize the consequences of epidemics in spatially structured populations, and mapping the costs of social life, via parasites and diseases.
机译：社会生活的代价通常被认为是寄生虫或病原体风险的增加。然而，野外的证据仍然模棱两可，可能是因为人口和社会群体往往是结构化的，这会影响疾病在当地的传播和灭绝。我们使用一个新的数据集（涵盖医疗保健前时期（1800-1850年）几乎所有芬兰地区）来测试城镇的村庄和家庭结构如何影响死于三种易于诊断的传染病天花、百日咳和麻疹的风险。与之前的结果一致，死于这三种疾病的风险随着当地人口规模的增加而增加。然而，将城镇划分为更多的村庄降低了死于天花的风险，并在一定程度上降低了死于百日咳的风险，但这略微增加了麻疹的风险。将城镇划分为更多的家庭增加了这三种疾病的流行时间，并导致预期的感染传播速度放缓。然而，只有当当地人口规模较小时，才能看到这种情况。我们的研究结果表明，种群结构对流行病、疾病或寄生虫风险的影响因病原体和种群规模而异，因此降低了在空间结构的种群中概括流行病后果的能力，以及通过寄生虫和疾病绘制社会生活成本图的能力。

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