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首页> 外文期刊>Pure and Applied Geophysics >Assessing Shifts of Mediterranean and Arid Climates Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Climate Projections in Europe
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Assessing Shifts of Mediterranean and Arid Climates Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Climate Projections in Europe

机译：评估欧洲RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候预测下地中海和干旱气候的转变

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摘要

The Mediterranean basin is the richest biodiversity region in Europe and a global hotspot of biological diversity. In spite of that, anthropogenic climate change is one of the most serious concerns for nature conservation in this region. One of the climatic threats is represented by shifts of the Mediterranean climate and expansion of the arid climate. In this paper, we present an assessment of changes in the spatial range of the Mediterranean climate in Europe and the conversion into arid climate under different greenhouse gas forcings, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We used 11 simulations in two future 30-year periods of state-of-the-art regional climate models from EURO-CORDEX. Our results indicate that by the end of the century under RCP8.5 the present Mediterranean climate zone is projected to contract by 16%, i.e. an area (157,000km(2)) equivalent to half the size of Italy. This compares with the less severe scenario RCP4.5 that projected only a 3% reduction. In addition, the Mediterranean climate zone is projected to expand to other zones by an area equivalent to 24 and 50% of its present extent under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Our study indicates that expansion of the arid zone is almost always the cause for contraction of the Mediterranean zone. Under RCP8.5 the arid zone is projected to increase by more than twice its present extent, equivalent to three times the size of Greece. Results of this study are useful for identifying (1) priority zones for biodiversity conservation, i.e. stable Mediterranean climate zones, (2) zones requiring assisted adaptation, such as establishment of new protected areas, implementation of buffer zones around protected areas and creating ecological corridors connecting stable Mediterranean zones.
机译：地中海盆地是欧洲生物多样性最丰富的地区，也是全球生物多样性的热点。尽管如此，人为气候变化仍然是该地区自然保护最严重的问题之一。气候威胁之一表现为地中海气候的变化和干旱气候的扩张。在本文中，我们评估了欧洲地中海气候的空间范围变化，以及在不同温室气体作用力（即RCP4）下向干旱气候的转化。5和RCP8。5.我们在未来两个30年期间使用了11个模拟，这些模拟来自EURO-CORDEX最先进的区域气候模型。我们的结果表明，到本世纪末，在RCP8下。5目前的地中海气候带预计收缩16%，即面积（157000公里（2））相当于意大利面积的一半。这与不太严重的情况RCP4相比。5预计只会减少3%。此外，根据RCP4，地中海气候带预计将扩展到其他区域，面积相当于其目前范围的24%和50%。5和RCP8。分别为5个。我们的研究表明，干旱区的扩张几乎总是地中海地区收缩的原因。根据RCP8。5预计干旱区的面积将增加两倍以上，相当于希腊面积的三倍。这项研究的结果有助于确定（1）生物多样性保护的优先区域，即稳定的地中海气候区，（2）需要辅助适应的区域，例如建立新的保护区，在保护区周围建立缓冲区，以及创建连接稳定的地中海区的生态走廊。

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