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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of hydrometeorology >Evaluation of a Physics-Based Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Model for Risk Assessment
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Evaluation of a Physics-Based Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Model for Risk Assessment

机译：评估风险评估的物理热带气旋降雨模型

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Heavy rainfall generated by landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause extreme flooding. A physics-based TC rainfall model (TCRM) has been developed and coupled with a TC climatology model to study TC rainfall climatology. In this study, we evaluate TCRM with rainfall observations made by satellite (of North Atlantic TCs from 1999 to 2018) and radar (of 36 U.S. landfalling TCs); we also examine the influence on the rainfall estimation of the key input to TCRM-the wind profile. We found that TCRM can simulate relatively well the rainfall from TCs that have a coherent and compact structure and limited interaction with other meteorological systems. The model can simulate the total rainfall from TCs well, although it often overestimates rainfall in the inner core of TCs, slightly underestimates rainfall in the outer regions, and renders a less asymmetric rainfall structure than the observations. It can capture rainfall distribution in coastal areas relatively well but may underestimate rainfall maximums in mountainous regions and has less capability to accurately simulate TC rainfall in higher latitudes. Also, it can capture the interannual variability of TC rainfall and averaged features of the time series of TC rainfall but cannot accurately reproduce the probability distribution of short-term (1 h) rainfall. Among the tested theoretical wind profile inputs to TCRM, a complete wind profile that accurately describes the wind structure in both the inner ascending and outer descending regions of the storm is found to perform the best in accurately generating various rainfall metrics.
机译：登陆热带气旋（TCs）产生的强降雨可能会导致极端洪水。发展了一个基于物理的TC降雨模式（TCRM），并将其与TC气候学模式结合起来研究TC降雨气候学。在这项研究中，我们通过卫星（1999年至2018年北大西洋TCs）和雷达（36个美国登陆TCs）的降雨观测来评估TCRM；我们还研究了TCRM风廓线的关键输入对降雨估计的影响。我们发现，TCRM可以较好地模拟TCs的降雨，TCs的结构连贯紧凑，与其他气象系统的相互作用有限。该模型可以很好地模拟TCs的总降雨量，尽管它通常高估了TCs内核的降雨量，略微低估了外部区域的降雨量，并且呈现出比观测结果更不不对称的降雨结构。它可以相对较好地捕捉沿海地区的降雨分布，但可能会低估山区的最大降雨量，并且无法准确模拟高纬度地区的TC降雨。此外，它还可以捕捉TC降雨的年际变化和TC降雨时间序列的平均特征，但无法准确再现短期（1小时）降雨的概率分布。在TCRM的测试理论风廓线输入中，发现准确描述风暴内部上升和外部下降区域风结构的完整风廓线在准确生成各种降雨指标方面表现最好。

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