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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of hydrometeorology >Changes in Future Flash Flood-Producing Storms in the United States
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Changes in Future Flash Flood-Producing Storms in the United States

机译：未来闪现洪水生产风暴的变化

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Flash floods are high-impact events that can result in massive destruction, such as the May 2010 flash floods in the south-central United States that resulted in over $2 billion of damage. While floods in the current climate are already destructive, future flood risk is projected to increase based on work using global climate models. However, global climate models struggle to resolve precipitation structure, intensity, and duration, which motivated the use of convection-permitting climate models that more accurately depict these precipitation processes on a regional scale due to explicit representation of convection. These high-resolution convection-permitting simulations have been used to examine future changes to rainfall, but not explicitly floods. This study aims to fill this gap by examining future changes to rainfall characteristics and runoff in flash flood-producing storms over the United States using convection-permitting models under a pseudo-global warming framework. Flash flood accumulated rainfall increases on average by 21% over the United States in a future climate. Storm-generated runoff increases by 50% on average, suggesting increased runoff efficiency in future flash flood-producing storms. In addition to changes in nonmeteorological factors, which were not explored in this study, increased future runoff is possible due to the 7.5% K-1 increase in future hourly maximum rain rates. Though this median change in rain rates is consistent with Clausius-Clapeyron theory, some storms exhibit increased future rain rates well above this, likely associated with storm dynamics. Overall, results suggest that U.S. cities might need to prepare for more intense flash flood-producing storms in a future climate.
机译：山洪暴发是高影响事件，可能导致大规模破坏，例如2010年5月美国中南部的山洪暴发，造成超过20亿美元的损失。虽然当前气候下的洪水已经具有破坏性，但根据使用全球气候模型的工作，未来的洪水风险预计将增加。然而，全球气候模型难以解决降水结构、强度和持续时间的问题，这促使人们使用允许对流的气候模型，由于对流的明确表示，这些模型能够在区域范围内更准确地描述这些降水过程。这些高分辨率的对流模拟已被用于研究未来降雨的变化，但没有明确说明洪水。本研究旨在通过在伪全球变暖框架下，使用对流允许模型，研究美国境内产生山洪的暴雨中降雨特征和径流的未来变化，以填补这一空白。在未来气候条件下，美国的山洪累积降雨量平均增加21%。暴雨产生的径流平均增加50%，表明未来产生山洪的暴雨会提高径流效率。除本研究未探讨的非气象因素变化外，由于未来每小时最大降雨量增加7.5%K-1，未来径流可能增加。尽管降雨率的中值变化与克劳修斯-克拉佩龙理论一致，但一些风暴显示未来的降雨率将大大高于此值，这可能与风暴动力学有关。总体而言，研究结果表明，美国城市可能需要为未来气候中更强烈的山洪暴发做好准备。

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