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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of stroke and cerebrovascular diseases: The official journal of National Stroke Association >Early Prediction of One-Year Mortality in Ischemic and Haemorrhagic Stroke
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Early Prediction of One-Year Mortality in Ischemic and Haemorrhagic Stroke

机译：早期预测缺血性和出血性脑卒中的一年死亡率

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Background: In Denmark 15%-20% of stroke victims die within the first year. Simple and valid tools are needed to assess patients' risk of dying. The aim of this study was to identify potential predictors of 1-year mortality in stroke victims and construct a simple and valid prediction model. Methods: Data were collected retrospectively from a cohort of 1031 stroke victims admitted over a period of 18 months at Nordsjadlands Hospital, Denmark. Follow-up was 1 year after symptom onset. Multiple logistic regression analysis with backwards selection was used to identify predictors and construction of a prediction model. The model was validated using cross validation with 10,000 repeated random splits of the dataset. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Brier score were used as measures of validity. Results: Within the first year 186 patients died (18.0%) and 4 (0.4%) were lost to follow-up. Age (OR 1.08), gender (OR 2.19), stroke severity (OR 1.03), Early Warning Score (OR 1.17), Performance Status (ECOG) (OR 1.94), Body Mass Index (OR 0.91), the Charlton's Comorbidity Index (OR 1.17), and urinary problems (OR 2.55) were found to be independent predictors of 1-year mortality. A model including age, stroke severity, Early Warning Score, and Performance Status was found to be valid (AUC 86.5 %, Brier Score 9.03). Conclusions: A model including only 4 clinical variables available shortly after admission was able to predict the 1-year mortality risk of patients with acute ischemic and haemorrhagic stroke.
机译：背景：在丹麦，15%-20%的中风患者在第一年内死亡。需要简单有效的工具来评估患者的死亡风险。本研究的目的是确定中风患者1年死亡率的潜在预测因素，并构建一个简单有效的预测模型。方法：回顾性收集丹麦Nordsjadlands医院在18个月内收治的1031名中风患者的队列数据。随访时间为症状出现后1年。采用向后选择的多元logistic回归分析来确定预测因素并构建预测模型。该模型通过对数据集进行10000次重复随机拆分进行交叉验证进行验证。采用受试者工作特征曲线下面积（AUC）和Brier评分作为有效性指标。结果：第一年内死亡186例（18.0%），失访4例（0.4%）。研究发现，年龄（OR 1.08）、性别（OR 2.19）、中风严重程度（OR 1.03）、早期预警评分（OR 1.17）、工作状态（ECOG）（OR 1.94）、体重指数（OR 0.91）、查尔顿共病指数（OR 1.17）和泌尿系统问题（OR 2.55）是1年死亡率的独立预测因子。包括年龄、中风严重程度、早期预警评分和表现状态的模型被发现是有效的（AUC 86.5%，Brier评分9.03）。结论：入院后不久仅包含4个临床变量的模型能够预测急性缺血性和出血性卒中患者的1年死亡率风险。

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