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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Theoretical Biology >The probability distribution of the ancestral population size conditioned on the reconstructed phylogenetic tree with occurrence data
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The probability distribution of the ancestral population size conditioned on the reconstructed phylogenetic tree with occurrence data

机译:祖先人口大小的概率分布在发生数据的重建系统发育树上

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We consider a homogeneous birth-death process with three different sampling schemes. First, individuals can be sampled through time and included in a reconstructed phylogenetic tree. Second, they can be sampled through time and only recorded as a point 'occurrence' along a timeline. Third, extant individuals can be sampled and included in the reconstructed phylogenetic tree with a fixed probability. We further consider that sampled individuals can be removed or not from the process, upon sampling, with fixed probability. We derive the probability distribution of the population size at any time in the past conditional on the joint observation of a reconstructed phylogenetic tree and a record of occurrences not included in the tree. We also provide an algorithm to simulate ancestral population size trajectories given the observation of a reconstructed phylogenetic tree and occurrences. This distribution can be readily used to draw inferences about the ancestral population size in the field of epidemiology and macroevolution. In epidemiology, these results will allow data from epidemiological case count studies to be used in conjunction with molecular sequencing data (yielding reconstructed phylogenetic trees) to coherently estimate prevalence through time. In macroevolution, it will foster the joint examination of the fossil record and extant taxa to reconstruct past biodiversity. (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
机译:我们考虑了三种不同抽样方案的齐次生灭过程。首先,可以通过时间对个体进行采样,并将其包含在重建的系统发育树中。其次,它们可以通过时间进行采样,并且只能作为时间轴上的一个“发生点”进行记录。第三,可以对现存个体进行抽样,并以固定的概率将其纳入重建的系统发育树中。我们进一步考虑,采样个体可以从过程中移除或不以采样概率固定。我们根据重建的系统发育树和树中未包含的事件记录的联合观察,推导出过去任何时候种群规模的概率分布。我们还提供了一个算法来模拟祖先种群大小的轨迹,给出了重建的系统发育树和事件的观察结果。这种分布可以很容易地用来推断流行病学和宏观进化领域的祖先种群规模。在流行病学方面,这些结果将使流行病学病例计数研究的数据与分子测序数据(生成重建的系统发育树)结合使用,以连贯地估计随时间变化的患病率。在宏观进化方面,它将促进对化石记录和现存分类群的联合检查,以重建过去的生物多样性。(C) 2020作者。爱思唯尔有限公司出版。

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