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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Theoretical Biology >When to lift the lockdown in Hubei province during COVID-19 epidemic? An insight from a patch model and multiple source data
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When to lift the lockdown in Hubei province during COVID-19 epidemic? An insight from a patch model and multiple source data

机译：何时在Covid-19流行病期间举起湖北省的锁定？ 补丁模型和多个源数据的洞察力

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After diagnosed in Wuhan, COVID-19 spread quickly in mainland China. Though the epidemic in regions outside Hubei in mainland China has maintained a degree of control, evaluating the effectiveness and timeliness of intervention strategies, and predicting the transmission risk of work resumption as well as lifting the lockdown in Hubei province remain urgent. A patch model reflecting the mobility of population between Hubei and regions outside Hubei is formulated, and parameterized based on multiple source data for Hubei and regions outside Hubei. The effective reproduction numbers for Hubei and regions outside Hubei are estimated as 3.59 and 3.26 before Jan 23rd, 2020, but decrease quickly since then and drop below 1 after Jan 31st and Jan 28th, 2020. It is predicted that the new infections in Hubei province will decrease to very low level in mid-March, and the final size is estimated to be about 68,500 cases. The simulations reveal that contact rate after work resumption or lifting the lockdown in Hubei plays a critical role in affecting the epidemic. If the contact rate could be kept at a relatively low level, work resumption starting as early as on March 2nd in Hubei province may not induce the secondary outbreak, and the daily new infectious cases can be controlled at a low level if the lockdown in Hubei is liftted after March 9th, otherwise both work resumption and lifting the lockdown in Hubei should be postponed. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：C2019冠状病毒疾病在武汉确诊后迅速在中国大陆传播。尽管中国大陆湖北以外地区的疫情保持了一定程度的控制，但评估干预策略的有效性和及时性，预测恢复工作的传播风险，以及解除湖北省的封锁仍然是当务之急。建立了反映湖北省和湖北省以外地区人口流动的斑块模型，并基于湖北省和湖北省以外地区的多源数据进行了参数化。2020年1月23日前，湖北及湖北以外地区的有效繁殖数分别为3.59和3.26，但此后迅速下降，2020年1月31日和1月28日后降至1以下。据预测，湖北省新感染病例将在3月中旬降至极低水平，最终规模估计约为6.85万例。模拟显示，湖北省恢复工作或解除封锁后的接触率在影响疫情方面起着关键作用。如果接触率能保持在较低水平，湖北省最早于3月2日开始的复工可能不会引发二次疫情，如果3月9日后解除湖北省的封锁，每天新增的传染病病例可以控制在较低水平，否则湖北省的复工和解除封锁都应该推迟。（C） 2020爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。

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