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首页> 外文期刊>Earth and Planetary Science Letters: A Letter Journal Devoted to the Development in Time of the Earth and Planetary System >Material failure and caldera collapse: Insights from the 2018 Kilauea eruption
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Material failure and caldera collapse: Insights from the 2018 Kilauea eruption

机译：材料故障和火山口崩溃：2018千河爆发的见解

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摘要

The Failure Forecast Method (FFM) was introduced as an empirical model for forecasting catastrophic material failures related to natural hazards, such as landslides and volcanic eruptions, with mixed success. During the 2018 eruption of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, the draining of the summit magma reservoir into the Lower East Rift Zone resulted in the formation of a new caldera at the summit. I tested the applicability of the FFM to caldera collapse by analyzing the cyclical earthquake swarms and ground deformation that occurred between 62 sudden major caldera collapse events. The progression of both the cumulative moment release of the cyclical earthquakes and the GNSS displacement show a major change in mid-June. In late May through early June, the progression of the parameters is consistent with strain localization or creep progression related to the development or activation of the ring fault system. From late June until the end of the eruption, parameter progression is roughly steady with initial accelerating increases in cumulative moment and displacement that shift to approximately linear progression. Analysis of repeating earthquake families in the cyclical swarms showed that the behavior of the repeaters was consistent with that of the cyclical swarms as a whole and suggested that each family undergoes its own progression of activation to termination. While the FFM analysis identified the system change in mid-June, it did not demonstrate an ability to forecast collapse events or the end of the eruption. Published by Elsevier B.V.
机译：失效预测方法（FFM）作为一种经验模型被引入，用于预测与自然灾害（如滑坡和火山爆发）相关的灾难性材料失效，其成功率参差不齐。2018年夏威夷基拉韦厄火山喷发期间，山顶岩浆储层排入下东部裂谷带，导致在山顶形成了一个新的破火山口。我通过分析62次重大火山口崩塌突发事件之间发生的周期性地震群和地面变形，测试了FFM对火山口崩塌的适用性。周期性地震的累积力矩释放和GNSS位移的进展在6月中旬都出现了重大变化。在5月下旬至6月上旬，这些参数的进展与环形断层系统的发展或激活相关的应变局部化或蠕变进展一致。从6月下旬到喷发结束，参数进展大致稳定，累积力矩和位移的初始加速增加转变为近似线性进展。对周期性群中重复地震家族的分析表明，重复地震家族的行为与整个周期性群的行为一致，并表明每个家族都经历了其自身的激活到终止的过程。虽然FFM分析在6月中旬发现了系统变化，但它没有显示出预测崩塌事件或喷发结束的能力。由Elsevier B.V.出版。

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