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首页> 外文期刊>The journal of risk finance >Towards multi-factor models of decision making and risk: A critique of Prospect Theory and related approaches, part Ⅱ
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Towards multi-factor models of decision making and risk: A critique of Prospect Theory and related approaches, part Ⅱ

机译：迈向决策和风险的多因素模型：对前景理论和相关方法的批评，部分ⅱ

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Purpose - To: evaluate Prospect Theory and Cumulative Prospect Theory as functional models of decision making and risk within various contexts; compare and analyze risk models and decision-making models; evaluate models of stock risk developed by Robert Engle and related models; establish whether the models are related and have the same foundations; relate risk, decision making and options theory; and develop the foundations for a new model of decision making and risk named "belief systems". Design/methodology/approach - Critiques existing academic work in different contexts. Analyzes the shortcomings of various measures of risk, and group decision making, which was not addressed in developing Prospect Theory and Cumulative Prospect Theory. Develops the characteristics of a mew model for decision making and risk named "belief systems", and then differentiates it from belief networks. Findings - Decision making is a multi-factor, multi-dimensional process that often requires the processing of information, and thus, it is inaccurate to impose rigid models in decision making; the existing metrics for quantifying risk are inadequate; Prospect Theory and Cumulative Prospect Theory were developed using questionable methods and data, and are impractical; the analysis of probabilistic insurance and most of the theories and "effects" developed by Kahneman and Tversky's articles are invalid and impractical; Prospect Theory, Cumulative Prospect Theory, Expected Utility Theory, and market-risk models are conceptually the same and do not account for many facets of risk and decision making; risk and decision making are better quantified and modeled using a mix of situation-specific dynamic, quantitative and qualitative factors; belief systems can better account for the multi-dimensional characteristics of risk and decision making. Research limitations/implications - Areas for further research include: development of dynamic market-risk models that incorporate asset-market psychology, liquidity, market size, frequency of trading, knowledge differences among market participants, and trading rules in each market; and further development of concepts in belief systems. Practical implications - Decision making and risk assessment are multi-criteria processes that typically require some processing of information, and thus cannot be defined accurately by rigid quantitative models; Prospect Theory and Cumulative Prospect Theory are abstract, rigid, and are not practical models for decision making; and existing market-risk models are inaccurate, and thus the international financial system may be compromised. Originality/value - The issues discussed are relevant to government regulators, central banks, judges, risk managers, executives, derivatives regulators, stock exchange regulators, legislators, psychologists, boards of directors, finance professionals, management science/operations research professionals, health-care-informatics professionals, scientists, engineers, and people in any situation that requires decision making and risk assessment.
机译：目的 - TO：评估前景理论和累积前景理论作为在各种情况下决策和风险的功能模型;比较和分析风险模型和决策模型;评估Robert Engle和相关模型开发的股票风险模型;确定模型是否相关并具有相同的基础;关联风险，决策和选择理论;并为新的决策和风险模型开发基础，称为“信仰系统”。设计/方法/方法 - 在不同情况下批评现有的学术工作。分析了各种风险衡量标准和群体决策的缺点，这在发展前景理论和累积前景理论中没有解决。为决策和风险称为“信仰系统”的MEW模型的特征，然后将其与信仰网络区分开。调查结果 - 决策是一个多因素的多维过程，通常需要信息处理，因此，在决策中强加僵化的模型是不准确的。量化风险的现有指标不足;前景理论和累积前景理论是使用可疑的方法和数据开发的，并且是不切实际的。 Kahneman和Tversky文章开发的概率保险以及大多数理论和“效果”的分析是无效和不切实际的。前景理论，累积前景理论，预期效用理论和市场风险模型在概念上是相同的，并且不考虑许多风险和决策的方面;使用特定情况的动态，定量和定性因素更好地量化风险和决策。信念系统可以更好地说明风险和决策的多维特征。研究局限性/含义 - 进一步研究的领域包括：开发动态市场风险模型，这些模型结合了资产市场心理学，流动性，市场规模，交易频率，市场参与者之间的知识差异以及每个市场的交易规则;并进一步发展信念系统中的概念。实际含义 - 决策和风险评估是通常需要信息处理的多标准过程，因此无法通过刚性定量模型准确地定义;前景理论和累积前景理论是抽象的，僵化的，并且不是决策的实际模型。现有的市场风险模型不准确，因此国际金融体系可能会受到损害。独创性/价值 - 讨论的问题与政府监管机构，中央银行，法官，风险经理，高管，衍生品监管机构，证券交易所监管机构，立法者，心理学家，董事会，财务专业人员，管理科学/运营研究专业人员，卫生研究专业人员，卫生研究专业护理信息专业人士，科学家，工程师和人员都需要决策和风险评估。

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