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INTERGENERATIONAL ASSOCIATIONS AND THE FERTILITY TRANSITION

机译:代际关联和生育率过渡

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Evolutionary theorists have long noted that intergenerational transmission in fertility may counteract aggregate fertility decline through a process of natural selection. I study this evolutionary process by estimating how intergenerational associations in fertility vary over the fertility transition and feed back into the level of average fertility. Microdata from 40 developing countries indicate that intergenerational persistence breaks down at the onset of the fertility transition but then strengthens as the transition progresses. These changes are attributable to a reversal of fertility differences by skill, as predicted by economic models of long-run demographic change. As fertility approaches the replacement level, rising intergenerational associations reweight the population to raise aggregate fertility rates, pushing back against aggregate fertility decline.
机译:长期以来,进化理论家一直指出,生育能力的代际传播可能会通过自然选择过程来抵消生育能力的下降。 我通过估计生育能力过渡的生育能力如何变化并反馈到平均生育水平的水平来研究这一进化过程。 来自40个发展中国家的微型数据表明,代际持久性在生育过渡开始时崩溃,但随后随着过渡的发展而增强。 这些变化归因于经济人口变化的经济模型所预测的,这些变化是通过技能逆转生育能力的差异。 随着生育能力接近替代水平,代际关联升高了人口,以提高生育率的总体生育率,从而反对总生育率下降。

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