...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Archives of General Psychiatry >Prediction of psychosis in adolescents and young adults at high risk: results from the prospective European prediction of psychosis study.
【24h】

Prediction of psychosis in adolescents and young adults at high risk: results from the prospective European prediction of psychosis study.

机译：预测青少年和年轻的精神病高危成人:潜在的结果欧洲精神病研究的预测。

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
   

获取外文期刊封面封底 >>

       
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

CONTEXT: Indicated prevention is currently regarded as the most promising strategy to attenuate, delay, or even avert psychosis. Existing criteria need improvement in terms of specificity and individual risk assessment to allow for better targeted and earlier interventions. OBJECTIVE: To develop a differential predictive clinical model of transition to first-episode psychosis. DESIGN: Prospective multicenter, naturalistic field study with a total follow-up time of 18 months. SETTING: Six early-detection outpatient centers in Germany, Finland, the Netherlands, and England. PARTICIPANTS: Two hundred forty-five help-seeking patients in a putatively prodromal state of psychosis according to either ultra-high-risk (UHR) criteria or the basic symptom-based criterion cognitive disturbances (COGDIS). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of transition to psychosis. RESULTS: At 18-month follow-up, the incidence rate for transition to psychosis was 19%. Combining UHR and COGDIS yielded the best sensitivity. A prediction model was developed and included positive symptoms, bizarre thinking, sleep disturbances, a schizotypal disorder, level of functioning in the past year, and years of education. With a positive likelihood ratio of 19.9, an area under the curve of 80.8%, and a positive predictive value of 83.3%, diagnostic accuracy was excellent. A 4-level prognostic index further classifying the general risk of the whole sample predicted instantaneous incidence rates of up to 85% and allowed for an estimation of time to transition. CONCLUSIONS: The prediction model identified an increased risk of psychosis with appropriate prognostic accuracy in our sample. A 2-step risk assessment is proposed, with UHR and cognitive disturbance criteria serving as first-step criteria for general risk and the prognostic index as a second-step tool for further risk classification of each patient. This strategy will allow clinicians to target preventive measures and will support efforts to unveil the biological and environmental mechanisms underlying progression to psychosis.
机译：背景:表示目前是预防认为是最有前途的战略减弱、延缓甚至避免精神病。现有的标准需要改进的特异性和个人风险评估允许更好的针对性和早些时候干预措施。微分预测的临床模型过渡到首发精神病。前瞻性多中心、自然的领域的研究总随访18个月的时间。设置:六个疾病的预测门诊中心在德国,芬兰,荷兰,和英格兰。求助的病人在一个公认的前驱精神病的根据超高风险(表)或基本标准症状标准认知障碍(COGDIS)。过渡到精神病。后续,过渡的发生率精神病是19%。取得了最好的灵敏度。开发,包括阳性症状,奇怪的思维,睡眠障碍,分裂型障碍,运作水平去年,和多年的教育。阳性似然比为19.9,一个面积80.8%的曲线,和积极的预测值为83.3%,诊断准确性太好了。整个样本分类的一般风险预测瞬时的发病率85%,允许一个估计的时间过渡。确定了精神病的风险增加适当的预测精度在我们的样例。两步的风险评估,提出了与表认知障碍作为标准第一步一般标准和风险预后指数作为第二次的工具每个病人的进一步风险分类。战略将允许临床医生的目标预防措施,并将努力的支持推出生物和环境机制发展成精神病。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号