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首页> 外文期刊>China Metal Market: Alumina & Aluminum Monthly >China Al market review for H1 and prospect for H2
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China Al market review for H1 and prospect for H2

机译：中国铝市场前景H1和H2审查

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摘要

In January-April 2004, Chinese aluminum market extended its upward trend that began in Q4 2003 with the price rising steadily. In early-middle April this year, aluminum spot price reached a peak of 18,300 yuan/tonne while the SHFE aluminum November contract touched a high of 19,550 yuan/tonne. But the prices did not stay at the high level for a long time. Hit by series of factors, especially the credit tightening, aluminum prices began to slump in late April. During one month, spot price had fallen by 3,000 yuan/tonne while futures price declined by 4,300 yuan/tonne, losing the whole gains that made in January-April 2004. It less than half a year for the price to return to their 2004 opening price level. But the average spot price for HI 2004 was 16.7 percent higher than HI last year, while the average futures price 18.8 percent more than HI 2003. The rise in domestic aluminum price was close to that in overseas market in the first half of this year. Domestic aluminum price soared in the first four months this year, mostly propelled by large fund buying rather than the market fundamentals. In the period, China's output of primary aluminum still grew rapidly while its net export of the metal decreased compared with the same period last year. As a result, aluminum stocks rose fast in the period and this is unlikely to provide rising impetus to aluminum prices. But some large funds still entered the aluminum market due to the expectation of slowdown in China's aluminum output growth as well as the rising production cost. Another reason is the widened price gap between aluminum and copper with the maximum ever reaching 11,500 yuan/tonne, never seen in recent ten years. In early this year, some large funds had selected aluminum as one of the most valuable investment commodities.
机译：2004年1月到4月,中国铝市场延续了2003年第四季度开始的上升趋势价格稳步上升。今年4月,铝现货价格达到了峰值的18300元/吨,而SHFE铝19550年11月合约触及的高点元/吨。高了很长一段时间。因素,尤其是信贷紧缩,铝价格在4月下旬开始衰退。在一个月期间,现货价格下降了3000人4300元/吨,而期货价格下降了元/吨,失去制造的整体收益2004年1月到4月。价格回到2004年的开盘价的水平。嗨去年高出16.7%,而比你好,期货价格平均高出18.8%2003. 接近,在海外市场今年的一半。今年头4个月,主要是推动大型基金购买而不是市场基本面。原铝产量仍在迅速增长而金属的净出口下降与去年同期相比。因此,铝库存增长快这是不太可能提供上涨动力铝的价格。由于进入铝市场预期放缓,中国的铝产出增长以及不断上涨的生产成本。铝和铜之间有史以来最大达到11500元/吨,从来没有见过在最近十年。选择铝作为一个最有价值的投资大宗商品。

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