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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Geophysical Research, A. Space Physics: JGR >On the Forecast Horizon of Magnetospheric Dynamics: A Scale-to-Scale Approach
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On the Forecast Horizon of Magnetospheric Dynamics: A Scale-to-Scale Approach

机译：磁性层的预测地平线动态:Scale-to-Scale方法

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The Earth’s magnetosphere is characterized by a complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of different multiscale processes which can be both directly driven/triggered by the interplanetary magnetic field and the solar wind, and due to internal processes of the magnetosphere. Recently, Alberti et al. (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JA023175) have shown that the fluctuations at distinct timescales of some geomagnetic indices differently respond to interplanetary changes during geomagnetic storms. In detail, using an information theory based approach it has been shown that geomagnetic indices fluctuations occurring at long timescales (typically longer than 200 min) are correlated with physical quantities characterizing the changes of the interplanetary conditions, while the short timescale ones (typically shorter than 200 min) do not seem to be directly related to the same physical quantities. The aim of this work is to identify the nature and character of the scale-to-scale fluctuations of two geomagnetic indices, AE and SYM-H, capable of monitoring different geomagnetic current systems related to the occurrence of geomagnetic storms and substorms. By applying the theory of dynamical systems, we investigate the scale-to-scale correlation dimension D_2 and the Kolmogorov entropy K_2 showing the occurrence of a topological phase transition phenomenon between long and short-timescale fluctuations. Furthermore, our results clearly show that the forecast horizon of fluctuations occurring at timescales shorter than 200 min dramatically decreases down to ～2 min. The consequences of this result in the framework of Space Weather forecasting is briefly outlined and discussed.
机译：地球的磁气圈的特点是复杂的动力相互作用所引起的不同的多尺度过程可以直接驱动/引发的行星际磁场和太阳风,由于内部流程的磁气圈。https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JA023175)显示不同时间尺度的波动应对一些地磁指数不同星际变化在地磁风暴。在细节,使用一个基于信息理论它已经表明,地磁方法指数波动发生在长时间尺度(通常超过200分钟)是相关的与物理量描述星际条件的变化,短时间尺度的(通常短于200分钟)似乎并没有直接关系相同的物理量。工作是确定的性质和特征两个的scale-to-scale波动地磁指数,AE和SYM-H的能力监测不同的地磁当前系统与地磁风暴的发生有关和亚暴的。动力系统,我们调查scale-to-scale D_2和相关维度柯尔莫哥洛夫熵K_2显示的发生一个拓扑之间的相变现象长,short-timescale波动。此外,我们的研究结果清楚地表明预测的波动发生时间尺度显著短于200分钟减少的后果~ 2分钟。这个结果在空间天气的框架预测简要概述和讨论。

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