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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Geophysical Research, A. Space Physics: JGR >How uncertainty in the neutral wind limits the accuracy of ionospheric modeling and forecasting
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How uncertainty in the neutral wind limits the accuracy of ionospheric modeling and forecasting

机译：中性风的不确定性限制如何电离层的建模和预测的准确性

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摘要

One of the most important input fields for an ionospheric model is the horizontal neutral wind. The primary mechanism by which the neutral wind affects ionospheric densities is the inducement of an upward or downward ion drift along the magnetic field lines; this affects the rate at which ions are lost through recombination. The magnitude of this effect depends upon the dip angle of the magnetic field; for this reason, the impact of the neutral wind is somewhat less in polar regions than at mid-latitudes. It is unfortunate that observations of the neutral wind are relatively scarce, as compared for example with observations of the Earth's electric field or auroral precipitation, and that the existing climatological models of the neutral wind are thus sharply limited in theirresolution. The observational data base of thermospheric winds is not sufficient to adequately constrain a three-dimensional model across a variety of conditions such as solar cycle, season, geomagnetic activity, and so on. Using the physics-based Time Dependent Ionospheric Model (TDIM) of Utah State University, we look for a quantitative answer to this question: How severe is the limitation imposed on ionospheric models by an uncertain specification of the neutral wind? We find that ionospheric modeling depends upon a detailed specification of the neutral wind to the extent that, if a climatologically averaged wind model is being used as a driver, this will lead to unavoidable uncertainties of 20-30% in the modeled F-region densities or Total Electron Content (TEC).
机译：其中最重要的一个输入字段电离层模型水平中性风。中性风的主要机制影响电离层密度是诱因向上或向下的离子漂移的磁场线;通过复合离子丢失。这种影响的大小取决于倾斜磁场的角度;中性风的影响较小极地地区比在中纬度地区。不幸的中性风的观测是相对稀缺的,例如相比与观测的地球电场或极光降水,现有的中性风的气候模型因此大幅theirresolution有限。观测数据基地thermospheric风不足以充分约束在不同的三维模型太阳活动周期、季节,地磁活动,等等。基于物理与时间有关的电离层模型犹他州立大学(TDIM),我们找一个定量回答这个问题:如何严重限制对电离层模型吗一个不确定的规范的中立风吗?中性风的详细规范在某种程度上,如果气候平均风力模型被用作一个司机,这将导致不可避免的不确定性20 - 30%的建模F-region密度或全部电子内容(TEC)。

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