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Two alternative outcomes for the US economy

机译：美国经济两种结果

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Our assessment of the economic risks associated with the continued threat from COVID-19,as reflected in the baseline forecast and these alternative scenarios,have remained unaltered relative to last month.Relative to our updated baseline projection,we continue to see the risks as being roughly balanced.The still high number of new cases,the emergence of new strains of the COVID-19 virus,an incipient"4th wave",and the uncertainty about the duration of the effectiveness of existing vaccines continue to pose downside risks to our forecast.On the other hand,the strong consumer spending data in recent weeks,the generous fiscal stimulus package that was enacted,and the acceleration of vaccinations allow for an equally high probability of returning to some sort of normalcy fairly soon.As a result,we assign a 50% probability to our baseline forecast,25% to the Pessimistic,and 25% to the Optimistic scenario.
机译：我们的经济风险的评估与COVID-19的持续威胁,这些反映在基线预测选择场景,依然没有改变相对于上个月。基线预测,我们继续看到这些风险是大致平衡的。的新情况,新菌株的出现COVID-19病毒,一个初期的“第四次浪潮”,的持续时间的不确定性继续现有疫苗的有效性对我们的预测构成下行风险。一方面,在最近的强劲的消费支出数据周,慷慨的财政刺激方案颁布,接种疫苗的加速度允许一个同样高的概率回到常态很快。因此,我们将50%的概率分配给我们悲观的基线预测,25%,25%乐观的场景。

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