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Massive downgrade of 2020 GDP growth forecast to reflect effects of COVID-19

机译：大规模下调2020年GDP增长预测COVID-19反映的影响

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This month's forecast includes the largest monthly revisions to projected GDP growth we have ever made. With data confirming plunges in activities curtailed by "social distancing" to limit the spread of COVID-19, we lowered our forecast for GDP growth in the first quarter to-3.5%, in the second quarter to-26.5%, and to-7.0% over the four quarters of 2020. Last month's forecast of 3 March, completed before the disease was officially designated a pandemic, anticipated GDP growth of 1.7% over this year (see chart, top). The contraction is consumer-led, as restaurants, theatres, resorts, airlines, retail outlets, personal services, home and vehicle sales, sporting events, and other activities began shutting down during March. Reflecting our assumption that the rate of new infections tapers in the second half of the year and the consumption "shock" begins reversing in the third quarter, we project GDP growth of 10.1% over 2021, compared to 1.7% in last month's forecast.
机译：这个月的预测包括最大月度修正预计GDP增长我们制造的。削减“社会距离”限制COVID-19蔓延,我们降低了我们的预期第一季度GDP增长- 3.5%,第二季度的- 26.5%,- 7.0%2020年四个季度。3月份之前完成该疾病官方指定的大流行,国内生产总值预期今年1.7%的增长(见图表,上面)。收缩是消费者,因为餐馆,剧院、酒店、航空公司、零售商店,个人服务、家庭和汽车销售,体育活动和其他活动开始了3月期间关闭。假设新感染的速度变小在今年下半年消费“休克”开始扭转在第三季度,我们项目10.1%的GDP增长2021年,在上个月的预测相比,1.7%。

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