1.We have revised up our projection for real GDP growth in 2021 from 3.1% to 4.3% due to several recent developments.2.First,recent data encouraged us to raise our estimate for Q4 growth from 3.7% to 5.6%,raising GDP growth for 2021 by 0.4 percentage point due purely to a higher starting point.3.Second,since last month's forecast,progress on vaccines has been somewhat faster,and the results of clinical trials much better,than expected.Our Life Sciences team expects a significant percentage of the population to be inoculated with an effective vaccine by summer.All else equal,the current surge in infections will slow growth early in 2021,but we now expect consumer spending to strengthen over the second half of the year,pushing GDP growth to 4.5%.
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