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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Geophysical Research, A. Space Physics: JGR >Radiation belt electrons respond to multiple solar wind inputs
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Radiation belt electrons respond to multiple solar wind inputs

机译：应对多种太阳能辐射带电子风输入

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摘要

The multivariate statistical basis that underlies both single- and multi-input linear prediction filter analyses is reviewed, providing context necessary to understand the full capabilities and limitations of such models. A brief reanalysis of single-input filters is conducted primarily as a contrast to subsequent analysis of multi-input linear filters, which (1) guarantee similar or better prediction capabilities than single-input linear filters and (2) reduce bias in estimated filter coefficients that is inherent to underspecified linear models when ordinary least squares algorithms are employed. The former is clearly valuable from a practical standpoint, but the latter helps build confidence in any physical interpretations of both the filter coefficients, which often emulate stable low-order dynamical response functions quite well, as well as prediction error statistics that can be used to provide a lower bound on the fractional or percent variance of radiation belt electron flux that can be attributed to each different solar wind input. We find that the solar wind bulk speed tends to be the primary driver of electron flux enhancements at magnetic L shells larger than 4, with little or no relation to flux decreases. Changes in the solar wind’s magnetic field strength tend to temporarily reduce electron fluxes between L = 4 and L = 8, while enhancing it between L = 3 and L = 4. In contrast to predictions generated by single-input linear filters, multi-input filters show that solar wind plasma density only contributes weakly to electron flux variability, although it does so consistently across nearly all L shells. Finally, we studied two distinct 4-year intervals within the most recent solar cycle and found that smaller, more time-stationary prediction errors are generated by multi-input linear filters. We therefore conclude that multi-input filters more accurately reflect real dynamic relationships than any single-input linear filter alone.
机译：构成的多元统计的基础单和多输入线性预测过滤分析,提供上下文了解完整的功能和所必需的这些模型的局限性。输入过滤器主要是进行与随后的分析多输入线性滤波器,(1)相似或保证比单更好的预测能力线性过滤器和(2)减少估计的偏差滤波器系数是固有的未指定线性模型在普通二乘算法。显然价值从实用的角度来看,但是后者可以在任何物理帮助建立信心解释的滤波器系数,经常模仿稳定低阶动力响应函数很好,以及可以用来预测误差统计数据提供部分或一个下界方差的百分比辐射带电子通量这可以归因于不同的太阳能风输入。电子的速度往往是主要的推动力大通量在磁增强L贝壳4,很少或根本没有与通量的关系减少。磁场强度会暂时降低电子通量L = 4和L = 8日之间提高它在L = 3和L = 4。单输入线性生成的预测过滤器、多输入过滤器表明太阳风等离子体密度只有弱有助于电子通量变化,尽管它一直在几乎所有的贝壳。我们研究了两个不同的四年间隔内最近的太阳活动周期,发现更小、更time-stationary预测错误是由多输入线性过滤器。因此得出结论:多输入过滤器准确地反映真实的动态关系比单输入线性滤波器。

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