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首页> 外文期刊>Archives of neurology. >A summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons.
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A summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons.

机译：摘要风险评分预测阿尔茨海默病的老年人。

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OBJECTIVE: To develop a simple summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons based on their vascular risk profiles. DESIGN: A longitudinal, community-based study. SETTING: New York, New York. Patients One thousand fifty-one Medicare recipients aged 65 years or older and residing in New York who were free of dementia or cognitive impairment at baseline. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We separately explored the associations of several vascular risk factors with late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD) using Cox proportional hazards models to identify factors that would contribute to the risk score. Then we estimated the score values of each factor based on their beta coefficients and created the LOAD vascular risk score by summing these individual scores. RESULTS: Risk factors contributing to the risk score were age, sex, education, ethnicity, APOE epsilon4 genotype, history of diabetes, hypertension or smoking, high-density lipoprotein levels, and waist to hip ratio. The resulting risk score predicted dementia well. According to the vascular risk score quintiles, the risk to develop probable LOAD was 1.0 for persons with a score of 0 to 14 and increased 3.7-fold for persons with a score of 15 to 18, 3.6-fold for persons with a score of 19 to 22, 12.6-fold for persons with a score of 23 to 28, and 20.5-fold for persons with a score higher than 28. CONCLUSIONS: While additional studies in other populations are needed to validate and further develop the score, our study suggests that this vascular risk score could be a valuable tool to identify elderly individuals who might be at risk of LOAD. This risk score could be used to identify persons at risk of LOAD, but can also be used to adjust for confounders in epidemiologic studies.
机译：目的:开发一个简单的总结风险评分阿尔茨海默病的预测老年人基于他们的血管危险配置文件。研究。千51医疗接受者享年65岁年或以上,居住在纽约无痴呆或认知障碍基线。探讨了几个血管的关联与晚发性阿尔茨海默病的风险因素(负载)使用Cox比例风险模型这将有助于识别因素风险评分。基于β系数和每个因素创建负载血管危险分数求和这些个人的分数。导致风险评分是年龄、性别、教育、种族、APOE epsilon4基因型,历史的糖尿病、高血压或吸烟,高密度脂蛋白水平,臀部和腰部比率。痴呆。昆泰,发展可能的风险负载为1.0与得分为0到14人并为个人得分增加了3.7倍15到18日人分数最低的3.6倍19日至22日,12.6倍的人的分数23日至28日的20.5倍和得分高于28。对其他人群的研究需要验证和进一步发展的成绩,我们的研究表明这可能是血管危险分数有价值的工具来识别老年个体可能的风险负担。被用来识别人的风险负载,但是也可以用来调整混杂因素在吗流行病学研究。

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