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Modeling the influence of water levels on recreational use at lakes Mead and Powell

机译：模拟水位的影响休闲在鲍威尔湖米德和使用

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The Colorado River is one of the most highly developed watersheds in the United States and has relatively unique long-term datasets for both recreational visitation and water levels from Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the 2 largest reservoirs in the United States. Previous efforts to model the relationship of recreation and reservoir water levels have primarily relied on survey-based estimates of visitor response to past actual or future hypothetical water levels. We provide the first major reservoir-recreation study based entirely on long-term observed data that also include observed economic impacts. Models of volume and visitation had significant estimated parameters for lake volume explanatory variables, with an R2 of 0.97 for the Lake Powell model and 0.71 for Lake Mead. These models predicted that 100,000 additional acre-feet of water over a year are associated with S280 additional recreational visits to Lake Powell and 13,490 visits to Lake Mead. A second model of Lake Powell volume and local area tourist spending also had a highly significant volume parameter, with an R~2 of 0.91. This model predicted that a 100,000 acre-foot increase in Lake Powell volume over a year is associated with $374,000 in additional visitor spending in tourism-related sectors in Coconino County, Arizona. The Lake Powell volume-visitation and volume-spending models imply the average visitor to Lake Powell spends $71 in lodging, restaurant and bar, and amusement/recreation sectors in Coconino County. This estimate is generally consistent with independent estimates of visitor spending derived from prior National Park Service visitor surveys.
机译：科罗拉多河是最高的之一在美国,流域开发的相对独特的长期的数据集休闲探视和水位米德湖和鲍威尔湖,2最大水库在美国。模型娱乐和之间的关系水库水位主要依赖游客的调查检验值响应过去实际或未来假想的水位。我们提供第一个主要reservoir-recreation研究完全基于长期观测数据这也包括观察到的经济影响。模型的体积和探视意义重大估计参数湖体积解释变量,鲍威尔湖R2为0.97模型和0.71米德湖。预计增加100000英亩-英尺水一年多与S280相关联额外的娱乐访问鲍威尔湖和米德湖达13490人次。鲍威尔湖体积和当地旅游支出也有一个非常重要的体积参数,R ~ 2为0.91。预计增加100000英亩一年多与鲍威尔湖卷374000美元的额外游客支出Coconino县旅游相关行业亚利桑那州。volume-spending模型意味着访问者平均鲍威尔湖花71美元在住宿、餐厅和酒吧,娱乐/休闲行业Coconino县。符合独立访客的估计支出来自之前的国家公园管理局游客调查。

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