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首页> 外文期刊>Global Economy Journal >HOW THE EXCHANGE RATE REGIME AFFECTS ADJUSTMENT TO LARGE OIL PRICE SWINGS IN OIL EXPORTING COUNTRIES
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HOW THE EXCHANGE RATE REGIME AFFECTS ADJUSTMENT TO LARGE OIL PRICE SWINGS IN OIL EXPORTING COUNTRIES

机译：调整汇率机制如何影响大石油出口国的石油价格波动的影响

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The aim of this study is to analyze how oil price shocks affect the economic growth of floating exchange rate regimes and fixed exchange rate regimes in oil-exporting countries with a ratio of oil exports to total exports exceeding 70%. Also, this study seeks to determine what monetary and fiscal policies both regimes apply in order to curb business cycles and reduce inflationary and recessionary gaps. The analytical study uses panel data for the period from 1991 to 2019, covering 24 oil-exporting countries, from the World Economic Outlook (WEO) database and World Bank. The econometric model is estimated by applying a panel VECM to examine the short- and long-term interdependencies in the macroeconomic variables. The results demonstrate that when there is a negative shock to the oil price, the exchange rate of the floating exchange rate regimes depreciates, money supply increases, and government spending decreases. In contrast, the exchange rate of the fixed exchange rate regimes fluctuates slightly; the money supply slightly decreases in the near, medium, and long term; and government spending decreases.
机译：本研究的目的是分析石油价格浮动的冲击影响经济增长汇率制度和固定汇率政权比石油出口国出口总额超过70%的石油出口。同时,本研究试图确定什么货币和财政政策制度适用于订单抑制商业周期,降低通货膨胀和衰退的差异。从1991年到2019年的面板数据,覆盖24个石油出口国,从世界经济展望(WEO)数据库和世界银行。应用面板检查短期和结果宏观经济的长期相互依赖关系变量。油价有负面冲击,汇率的浮动汇率政权贬值,货币供应量增加,政府支出减少。汇率的固定汇率制度略有波动;减少在不久的、中等和长期;政府支出减少。

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