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首页> 外文期刊>Global Economy Journal >TRENDS IN MIGRATION, UNEMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION: A POST-COVID-19 FORECAST OF CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT IN THE GAMBIA
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TRENDS IN MIGRATION, UNEMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION: A POST-COVID-19 FORECAST OF CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT IN THE GAMBIA

机译：迁移趋势、失业和人口:POST-COVID-19预测能力的发展在冈比亚

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摘要

As a developing economy, three major economic problems witnessed in the Gambia are the growing unemployment rate, migration (immigration and rural–urban drift) leading to urban population growth and the growing semi-skilled working population in theface of unemployment. This study seeks to answer the question of how the Gambian economy can plan to overcome these problems, coupled with post-COVID-19 global economic shocks, through a technically planned capacity development. In this paper, the trendsin variables representing capacity development indicators, migration, unemployment and working population in the Gambia are studied using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. To project a system of interrelationship among these variables in the Gambia, the study employs the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) forecast analysis for the period between 1990 and 2019, thereafter generates a five-year forecast. The findings confirm that investment into the educational sector in developing economies is bound to yield increasing return to scale in the next five years. Investment into education, training and skill acquisition, if done, will attract the transfer of technical and managerial skills and technology for the purpose of building up general national capacity in such a developing economy.
机译：作为一个发展中经济体,三个主要经济问题发生在冈比亚的增长失业率(移民和迁移导致城市人口城乡漂移)增长和日益增长的半熟练的工作失业人口theface。冈比亚的试图回答这个问题计划经济可以克服这些问题,再加上post-COVID-19全球经济冲击,通过技术计划的能力发展。变量代表能力开发指标、迁移、失业和工作人口在冈比亚研究使用自回归整合移动平均(ARIMA)模型。在这些变量在冈比亚,这项研究采用向量自回归(VAR)预测分析1990年和2019年之间的时期,之后生成一个五年的预测。研究结果证实,投资进入教育部门在发展中经济体必然会产生规模报酬的增加未来五年。培训和技能收购,如果做了,将吸引技术和管理的转移技能和技术建立的目的一般在这样一个发展中国家的能力经济。

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