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The association between initial COVID-19 spread and meteorological factors in Indonesia

机译：初始COVID-19传播之间的关系在印度尼西亚和气象因素

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Abstract On March 2, 2020, the first Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) case was reported in Jakarta, Indonesia. One and a half months later (15/05/2020), the cumulative number of infection cases was 16,496, with a total of 1076 mortalities. This study investigates the possible role of weather in the early cases of COVID-19 in six selected cities in Indonesia. Daily temperature and relative humidity data from weather stations nearby in each city were collected from March 3 to April 30, 2020, corresponding with COVID-19 incidence. Correlation tests and regression analysis were performed to examine the association of those two data series. Moreover, we analyzed the distribution of COVID-19 referring the weather data to estimate the effective range of weather data supporting the COVID-19 incidence. Our result reveals that weather data is generally associated with COVID-19 incidence. The daily average temperature (T-ave) and relative humidity (RH) present significant positive and negative correlation with COVID-19 data, respectively. However, the correlation coefficients are weak, with the strongest correlations found at the 5-day lag, i.e., 0.37 (??0.41) for T-ave (RH). The regression analysis consistently confirmed this relation. The distribution analysis reveals that most COVID-19 cases in Indonesia occurred in the daily temperature range of 25–31?°C and relative humidity of 74–92%. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 incidence in Indonesia has a weak association with weather conditions. Therefore, non-meteorological factors seem to play a more prominent role and should be given greater consideration in preventing the spread of COVID-19.Graphic abstract
机译：摘要在2020年3月2日,第一个冠状病毒疾病(COVID-19)病例被报道在雅加达,印度尼西亚。(15/05/2020),累计数量的感染案例是16496年,共有1076人死亡率。天气在早期COVID-19病例6选择城市在印尼。温度和相对湿度的数据附近的气象站在每个城市2020年从3月3日至4月30日,相应的与COVID-19发病率。相关测试和回归分析检查这两个协会的执行数据系列。分布COVID-19指天气数据来估计天气的有效范围数据支持COVID-19发病率。结果表明,一般天气数据与COVID-19发病率相关。平均温度(T-ave)和相对湿度(RH)存在显著的积极的和消极的分别用COVID-19数据相关性。然而,相关系数较弱,发现的最强的相关性5天的延迟,即0.37 (0.41 ?)T-ave (RH)。回归分析一直确认这个关系。大多数COVID-19病例在印度尼西亚发生在每日25-31温度范围?相对湿度74 - 92%。印度尼西亚COVID-19发病率已疲软与天气条件。似乎non-meteorological因素发挥更突出的作用,应该放在更大考虑预防传播的新型冠状病毒肺炎

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