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Conditional survival analysis for concrete bridge decks

机译：有条件的混凝土桥的生存分析甲板

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摘要

Bridge decks are a significant factor in the deterioration of bridges, and substantially affect long-term bridge maintenance decisions. In this study, conditional survival (reliability) analysis techniques are applied to bridge decks to evaluate the age at the end of service life using the National Bridge Inventory records. As bridge decks age, the probability of survival and the expected service life would change. The additional knowledge gained from the fact that a bridge deck has already survived a specific number of years alters (increases) the original probability of survival at subsequent years based on the conditional probability theory. The conditional expected service life of a bridge deck can be estimated using the original and conditional survival functions. The effects of average daily traffic and deck surface area are considered in the survival calculations. Using Wisconsin data, relationships are provided to calculate the probability of survival of bridge decks as well as expected service life at various ages. The concept of survival dividend is presented and the age when rapid deterioration begins is defined.
机译：桥甲板是一个重要的因素大幅恶化的桥梁,影响长期桥梁养护决策。这项研究中,生存条件(可靠性)分析技术应用于桥甲板年底评估时使用寿命使用国家桥库存记录。大桥时代,生存和的概率预期寿命将会改变。从这一事实获得额外的知识一个特定的桥面已经幸存下来多年来改变(增加)在随后几年的生存概率在条件概率理论。条件期望的桥梁的使用寿命甲板可以使用原来的估计生存条件的功能。平均每日流量和甲板面积考虑生存的计算。威斯康辛州数据,关系是提供给的概率计算桥梁的生存甲板以及预期寿命在不同年龄。呈现迅速恶化的时代定义开始。

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