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Japanese newspapers

机译：日本报纸

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摘要

A four-equation structural model of the Japanese newspaper publishing industry supply and demand for subscriptions and advertising is constructed from aggregate data and used to infer the effect of changing demand for newspaper advertising on industryprices, output, and profit. In 2017, Japanese newspaper advertising revenue, adjusted for inflation, was only half as great as at its 1997 mini-peak. Japanese newspaper circulation also peaked in 1997, and in the two decades since then has fallen by about one-fourth (counting a morning-and-evening subscription as two, by one-fifth if counting it as one). Based on the inferences in this paper, underlying these recent changes in Japanese newspaper revenue and circulation is an 83 decrease in the demandfor newspaper ads from 1997 to 2017, and a 26 decrease in demand for newspaper subscriptions, measured at the 1997 inflation-adjusted prices of ads and subscriptions. The fall in demand for newspaper ads is here directly linked to the rise of the internet using an autoregressive distributed lag model. A further indirect inference is that Japanese newspaper industry annual economic profit has fallen from 4845 100-millions of 2005 yen in 1997 to 1123 100-millions of 2005 yen in 2017.
机译：日本four-equation结构模型报纸出版业供给和需求订阅和广告从聚合数据,用来推断效果改变对报纸广告的需求industryprices、输出和利润。日本报纸广告收入,调整通货膨胀只有在它的一半大1997小峰。也在1997年达到顶峰,之后的二十年然后下降了四分之一(计数早上和晚上订阅两个如果计算五分之一)。推断,这些最近的基础日本报纸收入的变化循环是一个市场需求量减少83%报纸广告从1997年到2017年,26%报纸订阅,需求减少测量在1997年经通胀因素调整后的价格广告和订阅。报纸广告是直接链接到上升互联网的使用一个自回归分布滞后模型。推理是日本报纸行业从4845年年度经济利润下降100 -数以百万计的2005日圆在1997年到1123年2017年100 -数以百万计的2005日元。

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