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Scenarios as narrative past and future: A commentary on Schoemaker 2020

机译：场景叙述过去和未来:评论舒梅克2020

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摘要

Schoemaker's article addresses the link between the past and the future, the former as the domain of historians and the latter as the domain of futurists, including scenario planners. He quotes Santayana's “those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it,” which suggests that understanding the past can aid in anticipation of recurrences, specifically painful recurrences. Perhaps equally apt is Shakespeare's “What's past is prologue,” which suggests that understanding the past can aid in understanding the unique present and unique future, not just recurrences. It is this second view that I would like to examine.
机译：休梅克的文章地址之间的联系过去和未来,前者的域历史学家和后者的域未来学家,包括场景的规划者。儒家的“不能记住过去的人注定重蹈覆辙”,这表明了解过去有助于预期复发,特别是痛苦的复发。也许同样贴切的是莎士比亚的“过去是序言,“这表明理解吗过去可以帮助理解独特的现在和独特的未来,而不仅仅是复发。这是第二个观点,我想检查。

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