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Political/commercial background

机译：政治/商业背景

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摘要

EIU expects the civic-military regime, led by Nicolas Maduro of the Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (the Chavistas), to retain power throughout the 2022-26 period, despite its role in fomenting the country's ongoing socio-economic and humanitarian crisis. Numerous factors underpin our forecast; particularly significant is the regime's strict control over the military, police and paramilitary forces. This control, which depends on a patronage structure that rewards high-ranking officials and a disciplinary system that severely punishes insubordination, will allow the regime to manage internal dissent. The fragmented political opposition also will pose little threat to the regime's position. A lack of legal security, widespread crime and corruption, as well as weak and politicised institutions continue to hamper Venezuela's business environment. In Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index 2021, Venezuela ranked 177th out of 180 countries and territories for perceived transparency in the public sector. Venezuela received a transparency score of 14/100 (higher is better), well below the Americas regional average and global average (both 43/100).
机译：EIU预计civic-military政权,由委内瑞拉的查韦斯主义者),保留权力整个2022 - 26日期间,尽管它的作用在煽动国家的持续的社会经济和人道主义危机。支撑我们的预测;政府严格控制军队,警察和准军事部队。这取决于一个赞助结构奖励高级官员和纪律系统严重惩罚不服从命令,将允许政府来管理内部异议。支离破碎的政治反对派也小威胁政权的立场。缺乏法律保障,广泛的犯罪和腐败,以及弱和政治化机构继续阻碍委内瑞拉商业环境。国际清廉指数2021年,委内瑞拉的180个国家中排名第177位和地区上的透明度公共部门。分数14/100(高更好),远低于美洲地区平均水平,全球平均水平(43/100)。

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    《Country Commerce: Venezuela》 |2022年第9期|5-16|共12页
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