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Predicting wildfire induced changes to runoff: A review and synthesis of modeling approaches

机译：预测野火引起的径流变化：建模方法的回顾与综合

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Abstract Wildfires elicit a diversity of hydrological changes, impacting processes that drive both water quantity and quality. As wildfires increase in frequency and severity, there is a need to assess the implications for the hydrological response. Wildfire‐related hydrological changes operate at three distinct timescales: the immediate fire aftermath, the recovery phase, and long‐term across multiple cycles of wildfire and regrowth. Different dominant processes operate at each timescale. Consequentially, models used to predict wildfire impacts need an explicit representation of different processes, depending on modeling objectives and wildfire impact timescale. We summarize existing data‐driven, conceptual, and physically based models used to assess wildfire impacts on runoff, identifying the dominant assumptions, process representations, timescales, and key limitations of each model type. Given the substantial observed and projected changes to wildfire regimes and associated hydrological impacts, it is likely that physically based models will become increasingly important. This is due to their capacity both to simulate simultaneous changes to multiple processes, and their use of physical and biological principles to support extrapolation beyond the historical record. Yet benefits of physically based models are moderated by their higher data requirements and lower computational speed. We argue that advances in predicting hydrological impacts from wildfire will come through combining these physically based models with new computationally faster conceptual and reduced‐order models. The aim is to combine the strengths and overcome weaknesses of the different model types, enabling simulations of critical water resources scenarios representing wildfire‐induced changes to runoff. This article is categorized under: Water and Life > Conservation, Management, and Awareness Science of Water > Hydrological Processes Science of Water > Water and Environmental Change
机译：抽象的森林大火引起的多样性水文变化,影响过程驱动水的数量和质量。野火频率和严重程度的增加,需要评估的影响水文响应。在三个不同的水文变化时间表:立即火之后,恢复阶段,长期在多个野火和再生周期。主要流程操作在每一个时间表。必然地,模型用来预测野火影响需要一个明确的表示不同的过程,取决于建模目标和野火影响的时间尺度。总结现有的数据驱动的,应承担的概念基于物理的模型用于评估野火对径流的影响,确定主导假设,表示过程,时间表,每个模型类型和关键的限制。大量的观察和预测变化野火政权和相关水文影响,很可能身体基础模型将变得越来越重要。是由于他们的能力来模拟同时改变多个进程物理和生物的使用原则支持历史以外的外推记录。是由他们的更高的数据要求吗和较低的计算速度。预测水文影响的进步通过结合这些野火会基于物理模型与计算更快的概念,减少了模型的目的。目的是把优点和克服不同模型类型的弱点,使水资源模拟关键场景代表火灾事故引起径流的变化。本文分类下:水和生活>保护、管理和科学意识水>水文过程的科学水>水和环境变化

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