Slower growth in actual and potential GDP; little change in the output gap

US Industry Long-Term Outlook Group

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Slower growth in actual and potential GDP; little change in the output gap

机译：实际和潜在GDP增长放缓;输出间隙变化不大

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We revised up our forecast of real GDP for 2022 from 1.5 to 1.7, and down for 2023 from 1.0 to 0.9, leaving the projected level of GDP essentially unchanged in 2023. However, these small and apparently offsetting revisions in growth measured year-over year, which arise mainly from upward revisions in GDP growth in Q2 and Q3 of this year, conceal a 0.4 percentage point downward revision in growth in 2023, measured Q4 to Q4, and lesser though still notable downward revisions through the first half of 2025 (chart, top).

机译：我们向上修正2022年实际GDP的预测从1.5%提高到1.7%,2023年从1.0%国内生产总值(GDP)的0.9%,预计水平2023年基本上保持不变。小而明显抵消修订增长测量在年度出现主要从向上修正在第二季度国内生产总值(GDP)增长今年第三季度,隐藏一个0.4百分比点下调2023年增长,测量第四季度到第四季度,虽然仍较小通过上半年的向下修正2025(图表)。

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《US Industry Long-Term Outlook》 |2022年第thirdaquarter期|8-8|共1页
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US Industry Long-Term Outlook Group;
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Slower growth in actual and potential GDP; little change in the output gap

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