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Political/commercial background: Market conditions

机译：政治/商业背景：市场状况

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After rebounding to 4.9 in 2021-a multi-year high following the severe recession prompted by the coronavirus (covid-19) pandemic in 2020～growth will slow to 2.1 in 2022, in line with a concurrent global slowdown. Other major constraints in 2022 will be rising interest rates and high unemployment, which will suppress aggregate demand. The initial impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (and the imposition of Western sanctions on Russia) will mainly be indirect, via higher commodity prices and financial uncertainty. More positively, the threat posed by the highly transmissible Omicron variant of the coronavirus is dissipating because of its reduced severity Damaging electricity shortages and frequent load-shedding (power rationing) will put a cap on growth in 2022, although EIU expects a mild improvement in 2023 as new private-sector renewable energy projects come on stream. The policy environment will become more accommodating over time as the government speeds up the pace of structural reforms in a bid to facilitate private investment. We expect growth to quicken to 2.8 a year on average in 2023-26, underpinned by improved power supplies and the spread of digital technology The main downside risks are a deteriorating global backdrop, especially if the Russia-Ukraine war is unresolved, alongside inconsistent domestic policies.
机译：后反弹到2021年的4.9%——多年高位在严重的经济衰退引发的冠状病毒(covid-19) 2020年大流行~增长将在2022年放缓至2.1%,符合吗并发全球经济放缓。限制在2022年将利率上升和高失业率,这将抑制总需求。乌克兰(和实施的侵犯西方对俄罗斯)将主要的制裁通过提高商品价格和间接金融的不确定性。高度传染性ο威胁冠状病毒的变种是消散,因为减少电能严重损害短缺和频繁的用电限制(权力配给)在2022年将增长上限,尽管经济预计2023年略有好转随着新的私营部门的可再生能源项目投产。更加适应随着时间的推移政府加速结构的步伐改革以促进私人投资。年平均在2023 - 26岁的支撑改善电力供应和数字化的传播技术的主要下行风险日益恶化的全球背景下,特别是在Russia-Ukraine战争是悬而未决,旁边不一致的国内政策。

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    《Country Commerce: South Africa》 |2022年第4期|5-6|共2页
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